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Jeremy Phillips
Mon, May 18, 2026 astatine 8:15 AM CDT 4 min read
My children often archer maine that "today" is the champion oregon worst time ever. Sometimes some onshore connected the aforesaid day. Apparently it is imaginable to person the worst time ever aggregate times a week.
Unrelated.
The benchmark S&P 500 keeps tagging caller records and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite refuses to rotation over. And yet Wall Street's astir celebrated carnivore has called the apical again.
In aboriginal May 2026, Michael Burry told his much than 200,000 Substack subscribers that "the marketplace has jumped the shark" and that "the extremity of... this... is nigh." He has besides taken a important leveraged abbreviated position, reportedly done January 2027 enactment options connected the semiconductor ETF SOXX.
The examination that should springiness each long-only mega-cap tech capitalist intermission is the 1 Burry really made. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which includes NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron, Intel and TSMC, roseate much than 10% successful the azygous week ending May 8 and is up astir 65% successful 2026 alone. Burry argues that benignant of velocity looks similar the parabolic tally semiconductor and tech stocks enactment successful during the last months earlier the Nasdaq peaked successful March 2000.
The poster kid of the cohort is NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA), present a $5.45 trillion institution carrying the AI mill build-out connected its back. I person held NVIDIA for implicit 15 years, and the fundamentals are inactive genuinely impressive.
The expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable named his apical 10 stocks. Get them present FREE.
Q4 FY2026 gross landed astatine $68.13B, up 73.2% YoY, with Data Center gross of $62.31B and Data Center Networking up 263% YoY arsenic Grace Blackwell ships. Free currency travel ran $96.58B for FY2026. Jensen Huang's framing is that "the agentic AI inflection constituent has arrived." The request broadside reads similar a memo from the future: OpenAI's 10-gigawatt committedness and Anthropic's 1 GW archetypal buildout, some backed by nonstop NVIDIA investment.
Now the valuation gut-check. NVIDIA trades astatine a trailing P/E of 43 and a guardant P/E of 24, with a price-to-sales of 23. The wider marketplace is the louder warning. The S&P 500 Shiller PE Ratio sits supra 40 arsenic of May 2026, the highest speechmaking since the 2000 tech bubble and good supra the humanities mean of astir 17. Some AI firms person raised backing astatine up to 150 times their revenue. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon has acknowledged that "a clump of the superior that's being deployed volition really not nutrient immoderate returns."
There is simply a breadth occupation too. Fewer than 55% of S&P 500 components commercialized supra their 50-day moving mean adjacent aft a 7% determination successful the scale itself. Strategist Jim Paulsen has argued that rallies led by caller epoch stocks person mostly held up erstwhile the remainder of the marketplace stayed reasonably correlated, and that erstwhile those stocks contention up alone, it has usually been a informing sign.
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