What Oscar history predicts for this year's best picture nominees

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Illustration of movie characters successful a movie theatre lobby

While everyone other is prognosticating astir the apt winners of the Academy Awards, we astatine The Envelope similar to instrumentality a infinitesimal to usage the past to assistance foretell the future. Comparing this year’s champion representation nominees with erstwhile winners arsenic a mode to measure their chances has stood america successful bully stead before, truthful erstwhile again let’s crook to Oscar past to cipher the likelihood for this year’s harvest of hopefuls.

‘Frankenstein’

We don’t person to scope acold back, oregon acold afield, for this one. Guillermo del Toro’s movie calls to caput his ain 2018 winner, “The Shape of Water.” Misunderstood and strangely beauteous creature? Check. Beloved by a soulful, pure-hearted woman? Check. Chased by the existent monster of the story? Checkmate.

‘Sinners’

Writer-director-producer Ryan Coogler gave his movie the cheekily apt descriptor “genre-fluid.” But the academy has ne'er fixed genre films overmuch respect. So this mash-up involving music, romance, Jim Crow-era racists and vampires makes “Sinners,” with its record-breaking 16 nominations, a spot of an outlier. Until 1 recalls 2020’s victor “Parasite,” with its likewise bold premix of styles including acheronian comedy, thriller and horror. Both usage their platforms for immoderate superb societal commentary. “Parasite” whitethorn not boast the supernatural elements of “Sinners,” but it does extremity up with the characters destroying conscionable astir everyone successful their path, including each other, successful the goriest ways.

‘Bugonia’

Another combo platter of a film, “Bugonia” has fewer compatriots. But it shares a fig of antithetic qualities with 1992 victor “The Silence of the Lambs”: intelligence horror, powerfulness games, a torture basement, an unexpectedly resilient pistillate pb (Emma Stone successful the former, Jodie Foster successful the latter), and a bracing magnitude of bizarro humor.

‘Sentimental Value’

In the Norwegian film, the emotionally fragile histrion Nora (Renate Reinsve) fights astir each effort from her celebrated estranged begetter (Stellan Skarsgård) to reconcile and enactment unneurotic connected his film. The tenuous narration bears a resemblance to “Birdman,” 2015’s winner, arsenic a self-absorbed histrion (Michael Keaton) sets retired to write, nonstop and prima successful his ain signifier production, with his troubled girl ( Stone) by his side. Issues of fame, household and 2nd chances buffet some films.

‘Hamnet’

The 1949 victor “Hamlet” would beryllium the evident go-to. But “Hamnet’s” accent is connected the circumstances that whitethorn person led Shakespeare to constitute 1 of the top plays successful the Western canon. His wife, Agnes, is cardinal to this film, and the nonaccomplishment of their lad haunts them some successful irreconcilable ways until a occurrence of an ending brings them unneurotic astatine the Globe theater. Though a lighter film, 1999 victor “Shakespeare successful Love” treads the aforesaid boards, imagining a young, struggling Will and the pistillate who spurs him to greatness. With some films, creation transforms grief into thing everlasting.

‘Marty Supreme’

A striver successful New York’s underbelly, Marty (Timothée Chalamet) goes done a frantic “Perils of Pauline”-like travel successful bid to get what helium truthful desperately wants, not dissimilar Ani (Mikey Madison), the prima of past year’s victor “Anora.” And portion neither Marty nor Ani triumph their intended goal, they some extremity up weeping cathartic tears.

‘One Battle After Another’

Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest whitethorn person the champion car pursuit series since 1972 victor “The French Connection.” The enactment films are likewise some packed with paranoia and betrayal. Brutal, racist, obsessive detective Popeye Doyle (Gene Hackman) and brutal, racist, obsessive Colonel Lockjaw (Sean Penn) could beryllium BFFs. Then wherefore not propulsion successful a dash of 2023’s victor “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” for its chaotic crippled convolutions. At the halfway of some insane universes is the overwhelming emotion of a genitor for a child.

‘The Secret Agent’

Given the comparative dearth of non-English-language champion representation winners implicit the years, we’re going to dip into the planetary movie class here, with past year’s victor “I’m Still Here,” starring different Brazilian great, Fernanda Torres. She, similar “Secret Agent’s” Wagner Moura, won the Golden Globe for champion performance; some were nominated for Oscars for their roles. Both films were nominated for representation arsenic good arsenic planetary feature. Both code the consequences of Brazil’s murderous 21-year subject dictatorship. And successful 2 neat filmic twists, Torres’ quality was played by her ain parent (Fernanda Montenegro) successful that film’s coda, portion Moura played his ain character’s son.

‘Train Dreams’

A quiescent antheral (Joel Edgerton) is savaged by life’s cruelties, losing himself successful a reverie of haunted sorrow earlier reaching thing adjacent to redemption by looking to the Earth — and a fewer caring people. The film’s themes telephone up the spare 2021 victor “Nomadland,” wherever different widowed quality (Frances McDormand), who has besides mislaid her home, turns from the “civilized” satellite to find her way.

‘F1’

The movie centers connected Sonny Hayes (Brad Pitt), an itinerant racer for prosecute and, according to 1 brutal assessment, a “never-was.” “Rocky,” the astonishment victor successful 1977, stars Sylvester Stallone arsenic Rocky Balboa, a boxer who gets a accidental to spell up against the satellite champion. Carl Weathers is Rocky’s opponent, conscionable arsenic Damson Idris is Sonny’s (at first), but each movie ends with admiration connected each sides. Throw successful the emotion of a bully woman, an old-school workout program, and a content successful miracles, and these 2 volition negociate to spell the distance.

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