We Backed Archer Aviation Over Joby Aviation a Year Ago. Here’s Why We Were Wrong.

A twelvemonth ago, 24/7 Wall St. argued that Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) was the smarter eVTOL stake implicit Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY). Both person reported Q4 2025 results, and the scoreboard tells a antithetic communicative than we expected. Time to ain the call.

The April 28, 2025 portion leaned connected Archer's leaner outsourced model, Anduril defence partnership, United Airlines backing, Stellantis manufacturing deal, and astir 90% FAA compliance connected Midnight versus 80% astatine Joby. The valuation looked friendlier too. One twelvemonth later, the banal that the portion was skeptical astir crushed the 1 it favored.

Joby stopped being a pre-revenue story. The Blade rider concern acquisition drove Q4 gross of $30.84 cardinal against a $16.5 cardinal consensus, and absorption guided full-year 2026 gross of $105 cardinal to $115 million. Dubai exclusivity, the Uber app integration, Toyota's capital, and the 700,000+ sq ft Dayton, Ohio installation gave investors thing tangible to underwrite. CEO JoeBen Bevirt framed it plainly: "2026 volition people a cardinal inflection constituent for Joby."

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Archer kept executing, but mostly connected paper. Revenue was $300,000 for each of 2025, and the institution lone offered EBITDA guidance, signaling a Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA nonaccomplishment of $160 cardinal to $180 million. To support the runway alive, Archer raised $1.8 cardinal successful gross proceeds crossed 3 registered nonstop offerings. The certification milestone was real, with Archer becoming the archetypal eVTOL shaper to deed 100% FAA acceptance of each 797 Means of Compliance. Investors simply prized Joby's paying customers implicit Archer's paperwork.

eVTOL enthusiasm cooled hard. Joby is down 30.7% year-to-date, adjacent aft past year's run. Reddit sentiment confirms the shift, with ACHR treatment compressing to 54 (neutral) connected November 16 earlier a humble recovery. Rate uncertainty, certification timeline skepticism, and disposable dilution astatine some names person compressed multiples crossed the sector.