Trump Promised He’d Reduce Electricity Prices By 50% In 18 Months. We Ran The Numbers.

The deadline arrived this week. On the run trail, President Trump pledged that "12 months from January 20, your electrical bill... volition beryllium 50, 5-0 percent, less," a Trump committedness aboriginal stretched to an 18-month window. That model closed connected July 20, 2026. Instead of falling by half, energy prices went up.

According to U.S. Energy Information Administration data, residential energy rates roseate 18% from Trump's January 2025 inauguration done April 2026, the latest period available. In the astir caller 12 months alone, rates climbed 7.3%, astir treble the complaint of inflation. Energy bills are moving successful the other absorption of the pledge.

The Scorecard: Promise Versus Reality

A 50% chopped would person astir halved the emblematic household's powerfulness bill. The existent figure, an 18% summation since inauguration, means astir Americans are paying meaningfully more.

Pressure is not easing. PJM Interconnection, the largest grid relation successful the country, posted a capableness terms of $16.4 cardinal for powerfulness transportation successful the 2028 to 2029 period, tying the anterior grounds high. Capacity auctions acceptable what utilities wage to warrant aboriginal powerfulness supply, and those costs travel to customers. Utilities besides filed $9.2 cardinal successful rate-hike requests successful the 2nd 4th of 2026 alone, up 26% from the aforesaid play a twelvemonth earlier. The energy complaint hikes already recorded whitethorn beryllium a preview alternatively than a peak.

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Why Prices Rose Instead of Fell

The halfway operator is simply a supply-and-demand mismatch that predates the medication and has intensified. Data centers powering the AI roar are consuming energy astatine a gait the grid was not built for, adding an estimated $6 cardinal to PJM's auction costs by themselves. On the proviso side, ember and earthy state plants person continued to close, pulling capableness disconnected conscionable arsenic request surges.