The Old Fear-Based Paradigm Around Memory Cyclicality is Dead, So I’m Buying Micron

I support buying Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU), and I americium not readying to stop. The fastener gets pressed connected greenish days and reddish days, and I slumber good either way, due to the fact that the communicative I bought into past twelvemonth has hardened into thing structural.

The halfway crushed is simple: the aged representation playbook, wherever each up rhythm carries the effect of an oversupply crash, nary longer describes this business. High Bandwidth Memory is simply a co-engineered subsystem shipped nether multi-year, non-cancellable proviso contracts with hyperscalers, not commodity DRAM sold connected spot. On the Q3 FY26 call, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra told investors that "the representation manufacture has been structurally transformed by the proliferation of AI" and that Micron expects "tight conditions to persist beyond calendar 2027". That is simply a proviso concatenation statement, not a rhythm statement.

Three Receipts I Keep Coming Back To

Revenue durability that nary representation concern has ever had. Micron has signed 16 Strategic Customer Agreements, with $100 cardinal successful remaining show obligations and $22 cardinal of lawsuit deposits and fiscal commitments already connected the books. CFO Mark Murphy said that adjacent astatine declaration level prices, "we expect the margins to beryllium importantly supra anterior highest margins." Floor pricing beats anterior rhythm peaks. Read it twice.

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The Q3 FY26 numbers bespeak structural demand, not cyclical dynamics. Revenue landed astatine $41.456 billion, up 345.72% twelvemonth implicit year, GAAP gross borderline deed 84.6% versus 37.7% a twelvemonth earlier, and escaped currency travel ran $18.304 cardinal successful a azygous quarter. Guidance for Q4 FY26 calls for $50.0 cardinal successful gross and $31.00 successful non-GAAP EPS astatine the midpoint. Non-GAAP EPS for Q3 came successful astatine $25.11, the seventh consecutive 4th of beats.