Tesla and Rivian Are Both Down 12%. Here's the Better Buy for the Second Half of 2026.

Tesla's displacement

Tesla has somewhat shifted its concern exemplary from being conscionable a carmaker to thing person to an autonomy company. Its biggest propulsion this twelvemonth is its robotaxi service, and that is nary longer a slide-deck promise. Tesla has begun to connection driverless rides successful respective U.S. cities, including Austin and Dallas, and it plans to grow into much markets and statesman gathering its purpose-made Cybercab. If self-driving works astatine scale, it could crook Tesla's existing fleet and factories into a services concern with acold higher margins than selling cars.

That is the bull case, and it is simply a large one. The drawback is that Tesla has been promising to present afloat autonomy "soon" for years, and has repeatedly missed its ain deadlines, truthful a steadfast dose of skepticism is warranted. The banal besides carries a affluent valuation that has a batch of assumed aboriginal occurrence already baked in. Meanwhile, CEO Elon Musk's nationalist and governmental distractions stay a chaotic paper that tin determination the shares connected immoderate fixed day.

What Rivian is doing

Rivian's communicative for 2026 is acold much concrete, and it revolves astir 1 vehicle: the R2. This smaller SUV, priced astir $45,000, is the company's stake to determination from a niche shaper of pricey trucks into the wide market, and accumulation is ramping this year. Rivian expects the R2 to thrust a large leap successful deliveries, having already raised its full-year transportation people aft beating its ain quarterly guidance.

Just arsenic important, Rivian is not going it alone. Its associated task with Volkswagen is worthy up to $5.8 billion, with currency distributions to the EV shaper to beryllium unlocked arsenic the institution hits engineering milestones. That concern does 2 invaluable things: It provides Rivian with funds it tin usage for maturation (sparing it from relying solely connected the currency it has already raised), and it gives its bundle and electrical exertion a seal of support from 1 of the largest automakers connected earth. For a young company, that benignant of endorsement matters.