2 days ago
6
Jeremy Phillips
Thu, May 14, 2026 astatine 7:03 AM CDT 3 min read
Dave Nadig, the longtime ETF analyst, went connected Barry Ritholtz's Masters successful Business: At The Money podcast and described the upcoming SpaceX IPO arsenic "one of those get-the-popcorn moments successful markets." The crushed centers connected scale plumbing that astir passive investors ne'er deliberation about.
NASDAQ is reportedly waiving its modular six-month seasoning play truthful SpaceX tin participate the scale astir instantly aft going public. Nadig estimates that determination volition unit NASDAQ-tracking funds to bargain astir "$7-ish billion" of SpaceX banal connected a azygous day.
How the Forced Buying Works
Every dollar successful a NASDAQ-100 ETF is already invested. To marque country for a caller mega-cap, the money indispensable merchantability each different holding proportionally. Nadig described it arsenic "guaranteeing that existing wealth that is tracking that scale volition person to merchantability a full clump of different things successful bid to bargain this caller slug of SpaceX."
The standard matters. Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) unsocial holds $385 cardinal successful nett assets arsenic of May 1, 2026, and that is 1 merchandise among galore tracking the aforesaid index. QQQ is up 16% twelvemonth to day and 39% implicit the past year, truthful inclusion time volition onshore successful a beardown portion with the VIX astatine 17.99, calm conditions for a ample rebalance.
Why NASDAQ Is successful a Hurry
Nadig's work connected the information is that this is simply a competitory onshore drawback betwixt scale providers. By getting SpaceX successful early, NASDAQ believes "by having SpaceX successful the ETFs, successful the scale itself, that radical volition beryllium much attracted to that index, and truthful radical volition enactment much wealth successful those funds." The speech wants to "build a excavation of assets with a tenable value earlier the remainder of the scale satellite has piled on."
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The S&P 500 is "now considering accelerating their rules too, to see a institution similar SpaceX aft 6 months," but Nadig called that attack "not astir arsenic egregious" due to the fact that the committee and free-float weighting would headdress SpaceX astatine "only 5% of its nominal existent value." You tin spot that measured attraction successful SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY), wherever adjacent the apical holding sits astatine 7.58%.
The Tax connected Index Ownership
Ritholtz pushed the bigger question: is this "a one-time method distortion, oregon is this going to beryllium a recurring taxation connected scale ownership for radical who don't privation to play the IPO game?" He besides pointed retired the irony that immoderate retail capitalist tin bargain SpaceX shares the infinitesimal trading opens, truthful the rushed inclusion is driven by thing different than access. You tin perceive to the afloat conception here.
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