Signs of US Labor Market Weakness Weigh on Stocks

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) contiguous is down -0.19%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.15%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.45%.  December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) are down -0.20%, and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) are down -0.43%.

US banal indexes are moving little contiguous connected beardown grounds of a cooling US labour market.  Today's study from outplacement steadfast Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that US companies announced the astir occupation cuts successful immoderate October successful much than 20 years.

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However, a diminution successful enslaved yields is limiting the downside successful stocks. The 10-year T-note output is down -5 bp to 4.11% successful hopes the Fed volition proceed to chopped involvement rates aft today's anemic labour study from Challenger.  Also, beardown firm net results are supportive of stocks, with 81% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q3 net beating expectations.

US Oct Challenger occupation cuts surged +175.3% y/y to 153,074, the largest summation successful 7 months and the astir for an October successful 22 years. Year-to-date occupation cuts person exceeded 1 million, the astir since the pandemic, and US employers person announced the fewest hiring plans since 2011.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that a deficiency of ostentation information during the authorities shutdown makes him much uneasy astir continuing Fed involvement complaint cuts.

The markets are discounting a 69% accidental of different -25 bp complaint chopped astatine the adjacent FOMC gathering connected December 9-10.

The US Supreme Court appeared skeptical connected Wednesday astir whether President Trump's reciprocal tariffs are legal.  Chief Justice Roberts and Justices Gorsuch and Coney questioned President Trump's usage of an emergency-powers instrumentality to cod tariffs, with Roberts saying the tariffs were an "imposition of taxes connected Americans, and that has ever been the halfway powerfulness of Congress." The Supreme Court is expected to contented its ruling by precocious this twelvemonth oregon aboriginal successful 2026.  Lower courts person already ruled that Mr. Trump's reciprocal tariffs are illegal, uncovering they are based connected a specious assertion of exigency authorization nether the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act.  If the US Supreme Court upholds those rulings and strikes down the tariffs, past the US authorities whitethorn person to refund the reciprocal and fentanyl-linked tariffs already collected, totaling much than $80 billion, and Mr. Trump's powerfulness to enforce tariffs whitethorn beryllium constricted to well-founded sections of US commercialized law, specified arsenic sections 232, 301, and 201.