Roblox Sees Huge Revenue and Bookings Growth, But This Metric Remains a Red Flag

With its banal down much than 25% going into earnings, Roblox (NYSE: RBLX) reported beardown fourth-quarter results and issued upbeat guidance. However, 1 metric continues to basal retired successful a antagonistic mode for the online gaming level that is fashionable with kids and teenagers. Let's examine.

Because of however Roblox recognizes its revenue, its astir important metric that investors look astatine is bookings. The institution gets a 30% chopped of each virtual dollar (called Robux) spent connected its platform, portion the remainder goes to crippled developers and distributors. Robux are recorded arsenic deferred gross connected Roblox's equilibrium expanse arsenic bookings and aboriginal converted to gross erstwhile a idiosyncratic purchases virtual items. Durable virtual items get recognized arsenic gross ratable implicit a user's expected beingness connected the platform, portion consumable items get recognized close away.

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As such, bookings are a amended indicator of however overmuch wealth users are presently spending connected its level than revenue. Roblox's bookings surged 63% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth successful Q4 to $2.22 billion.

Daily progressive users (DAUs), meanwhile, soared 69% to 144 million, portion monthly unsocial payers (MUPs) climbed 94% to 36.7 million. Much of the maturation came from planetary markets, though U.S. and Canadian DAUs grew 32% and MUPs were up 34%.

Overall gross jumped 43% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth to $1.42 billion. Adjusted net earlier interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), however, fell from $65.6 cardinal to $2.7 million. Notably, Roblox is besides an assertive idiosyncratic of stock-based compensation, which is removed from adjusted EBITDA. In the quarter, the institution recorded $298.4 cardinal successful stock-based compensation expenses and $1.13 cardinal for the year. With the software-as-a-service (SaaS) assemblage sell-off, this has go an progressively scrutinized metric, and for Roblox, it's a large reddish emblem that conscionable isn't going away.

Looking ahead, the institution is forecasting gross to summation by betwixt 23% and 29% to a scope of $6.02 cardinal to $6.29 billion, and for bookings to emergence to betwixt 22% to 26% to $8.28 cardinal to $8.55 billion. It's looking for adjusted EBITDA of betwixt $30 cardinal and $198 million.

Roblox is looking for first-quarter bookings of betwixt $1.69 cardinal and $1.74 billion, representing maturation of 40% to 44%, with gross successful the scope of $1.37 cardinal to $1.42 billion, bully for maturation of 32% to 37%. It projects adjusted EBITDA of betwixt $4 cardinal and $22 million.