Robinhood CEO Says Prediction Markets Are Entering a ‘Supercycle’

Key Takeaways

• Tenev said Robinhood’s prediction markets could scope “trillions” successful yearly volume.

• Robinhood reported implicit 12 cardinal contracts traded successful 2025 and implicit 4 cardinal truthful acold successful 2026.

• The CFTC withdrew its 2024 event-contract connection and plans caller rulemaking.

• Robinhood is gathering Rothera with Susquehanna to grow its lawsuit contracts.

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev said prediction markets are the company’s fastest-growing concern and could “drive trillions successful yearly measurement implicit time,” according to its latest net telephone connected Feb. 10.

The comments travel arsenic the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has withdrawn its 2024 projected rulemaking connected lawsuit contracts and said it volition prosecute a caller rulemaking approach.

Robinhood has been expanding lawsuit contracts successful its app and gathering marketplace infrastructure done Rothera, a associated task with Susquehanna intended to run a CFTC-licensed speech and clearinghouse.

Tenev said Robinhood is seeing accelerated adoption successful prediction markets and expects large planetary events to enactment demand.

He said much than 12 cardinal prediction marketplace contracts were traded connected Robinhood successful 2025, which helium described arsenic the product’s archetypal afloat year, and that much than 4 cardinal had traded truthful acold successful 2026.

Robinhood besides said enactment has extended beyond U.S. football, citing examples successful different sports and non-sports categories.

On Feb. 4, the CFTC announced it had withdrawn the projected rules connected lawsuit contracts that were published successful June 2024.

It said it does not mean to contented last rules based connected that proposal. The Federal Register announcement states the withdrawal was effectual arsenic of Feb. 4, 2026.

CFTC besides said unit withdrew a sports-related lawsuit contracts advisory and that the bureau plans to beforehand a caller rulemaking.

Robinhood has tied prediction markets to a broader build-out.

On its newsroom site, the institution said it is extending prediction markets done a caller associated task and concern with Susquehanna to run a CFTC-licensed speech and clearinghouse.

Tenev referenced Rothera arsenic portion of Robinhood’s roadmap, describing the task arsenic coming online.

Control of execution and clearing tin signifier pricing, compliance requirements, and however rapidly products tin expand.

Prediction markets person besides shown signs of scaling beyond niche audiences.

Kalshi said it deed $1 cardinal successful regular trading measurement connected Super Bowl Sunday, arsenic platforms vie to database much lawsuit contracts portion U.S. regulators revisit the rulebook.