Alex Sirois
Wed, July 22, 2026 astatine 9:03 AM CDT 4 min read
Quick Read
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NVDA's escaped CUDA ecosystem locks developers into its hardware, delivering 85% gross growth, 71% gross margins, and $48B successful quarterly escaped currency flow.
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China contributes zero to NVDA's $91B Q2 guidance, portion Blackwell and Rubin transportation $1 trillion successful gross visibility done 2027.
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AMD lacks CUDA and Broadcom's ASICs miss the developer lock-in that lets NVDA's single-quarter Data Center gross transcend AMD's full yearly base.
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I support buying NVIDIA, and the crushed has astir thing to bash with the chips. It's the bundle giveaway underneath them. Most investors record NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) nether "hardware," and that framing is precisely wherefore I'm inactive adding astatine $207.29. What I really ain is simply a freemium level that happens to merchantability the world's astir costly accelerators connected the backmost end.
The Free Tier Is the Trap
CUDA is free. Triton is free. NIMs, Dynamo 1.0, Nemotron, BioNeMo, Isaac, Omniverse. All free. Every postgraduate student, startup, and hyperscaler probe squad writes codification against these libraries. Then the codification lone runs astatine afloat velocity connected NVIDIA silicon. "NVIDIA has the largest suite of acceleration libraries successful the world," Jensen Huang told analysts connected the May call, and that's the moat successful plain language.
The paywall shows up astatine scale. When a lawsuit moves from prototype to production, they physique an AI mill alternatively than purchasing a azygous GPU. CFO Colette Kress framed it plainly: "Customers bash not bargain GPUs; they physique AI factories. The close economical metric is not the acquisition terms of the GPU; it is the beingness outgo of an AI mill producing intelligence." Switching costs astatine that level are brutal. You'd rewrite years of CUDA-optimized code, retrain teams, and suffer performance. Almost cipher does it.
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The Receipts
Three numbers support the bargain fastener warm. First, maturation that shouldn't beryllium imaginable astatine this size. Q1 FY2027 gross deed $81.615 billion, up 85.23% twelvemonth implicit year, with Data Center unsocial astatine $75.246 cardinal (+92%). Networking wrong that fig grew 199% YoY. Management guided Q2 to $91.0 billion.
Second, the borderline operation the bundle stack enables. Gross borderline 71.07%, operating borderline 60.38%, ROE 101.5%, ROIC 92.2%. Free currency travel of $48.554 cardinal successful a azygous quarter. Those are software-company economics attached to a hardware measurement business.

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