Nvidia price target boosted ahead of expected first quarter revenue beat

The revision is based connected a 19x aggregate applied to revised 2027 net per stock of $14.35, reflecting accrued assurance successful the company’s information halfway maturation trajectory.

Nvidia is expected to present a beardown archetypal 4th performance, with UBS forecasting gross of astir $81 billion, implying a astir $3 cardinal bushed versus the midpoint of statement estimates astatine $78 billion.

The slope besides sees second-quarter guidance coming successful “at slightest arsenic bully arsenic capitalist bogeys” successful the $90 cardinal to $91 cardinal range.

UBS said Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin spot and compute committee accumulation remains connected track, though immoderate system-level adjustments could impact timing. It noted that “some good tuning connected rack-level cooling issues seems to beryllium pushing wide accumulation for racks into the September/October timeframe,” but added that robust request for Blackwell should assistance creaseless near-term proviso timing. The steadfast besides said ODM partners could widen accumulation into year-end, perchance offsetting immoderate abbreviated delays.

Capital returns are expected to beryllium a large absorption successful the upcoming results. UBS is watching for “both stock repurchases and a imaginable summation successful the dividend,” and sees a imaginable caller buyback authorization that could attack $150 cardinal implicit the adjacent 12 months. The steadfast added that capitalist unit for a higher dividend is increasing, with the presumption that it could broaden the shareholder base.

UBS besides highlighted rising hyperscale superior spending, noting that “US hyperscale capex expectations accrued to $812 cardinal and $968 cardinal from anterior $764 cardinal and $839 billion” for 2026 and 2027, led by higher forecasts from Microsoft and Meta.

On proviso and request dynamics, UBS pointed to expanding CoWoS packaging capableness and beardown GPU shipment growth. It projects Nvidia could vessel astir 8.9 cardinal GPUs successful 2026 and 9.8 cardinal successful 2027, rising to astir 15.4 cardinal full compute units erstwhile including CPU and LPU products.

The steadfast said Nvidia’s messaging continues to stress a displacement toward system-level worth instauration done deeper bundle integration and disaggregated inference architectures. UBS besides highlighted an updated backlog disclosure from GTC, wherever Nvidia raised its anterior $500 cardinal outlook (excluding Hopper) for 2025 to 2026 to implicit $1 trillion for 2025 to 2027, which it views arsenic reinforcing a multi-year request runway.

Nvidia is scheduled to study first-quarter net connected May 20 aft US markets close. Shares past traded astatine $228, up 22% year-to-date.