News Analysis: Trade deal or trade truce? Questions remain as Trump meets with China's Xi

WASHINGTON — President Trump faces the astir important planetary gathering of his 2nd word truthful acold connected Thursday: face-to-face negotiations with Xi Jinping, who has made China a formidable economical and subject challenger to the United States.

The 2 presidents look a immense docket during their gathering successful Seoul, opening with the 2 countries’ escalating commercialized warfare implicit tariffs and high-tech exports. The database besides includes U.S. demands for a Chinese crackdown connected fentanyl, China’s assistance to Russia successful its warfare with Ukraine, the aboriginal of Taiwan and China’s increasing atomic arsenal.

Trump has already promised, characteristically, that the gathering volition beryllium a large success.

“It’s going to beryllium fantastic for some countries, and it’s going to beryllium fantastic for the full world,” helium said past week.

But it isn’t yet wide that the summit’s factual results volition measurement up to that precocious standard.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that the 2 sides person agreed to a “framework” nether which China would hold implementing choky controls connected uncommon world elements, minerals important for the accumulation of high-tech products from smartphones and electrical vehicles to subject craft and missiles. He said China has besides agreed to resume buying soybeans from U.S. farmers and to ace down connected fentanyl components.

In return, Bessent said, the United States volition backmost down from its stinging tariffs connected Chinese goods.

Nicholas Burns, the U.S. ambassador successful Beijing nether then-President Biden, said that benignant of woody would magnitude to “an uneasy commercialized truce alternatively than a broad commercialized deal.”

“That whitethorn beryllium the champion we tin expect,” helium said successful an interrogation Monday. Still, helium added, “it volition beryllium a affirmative measurement to stabilize satellite markets and let the continuation of U.S.-China commercialized for the clip being.”

But U.S. and Chinese officials person been close-mouthed connected what, if anything, has been agreed connected regarding Xi’s different large commercialized demand: easier U.S. restrictions connected high-tech exports to China, particularly precocious semiconductor chips utilized for artificial intelligence.

Burns said the 2 superpowers’ exertion contention is “the astir delicate … successful presumption of wherever this narration volition head, which state volition look much powerful.”

Giving China casual entree to precocious semiconductors “would lone assistance [the Chinese army] successful its contention with the U.S. subject for powerfulness successful the Indo-Pacific,” helium warned.

Other erstwhile officials and China hawks extracurricular the medication person said, adjacent much pointedly, that they interest that Trump whitethorn beryllium excessively consenting to commercialized semipermanent exertion assets for short-term commercialized deals.

In August, Trump eased export controls to let Nvidia, the satellite person successful AI chips, to merchantability much semiconductors to China — successful an antithetic woody nether which the U.S. institution would wage 15% of its gross from the income to the U.S. Treasury.

Matthew Pottinger, Trump’s apical China advisor successful his archetypal term, protested successful a caller podcast interrogation that the woody risked trading a strategical exertion vantage “for $20 cardinal and Nvidia’s bottommost line.”

Underlying the contention implicit technology, immoderate China watchers warn, is simply a basal mismatch betwixt the 2 presidents: Trump is focused astir wholly connected commercialized and commercialized deals, portion Xi is focused connected displacing the United States arsenic the biggest economical and subject powerfulness successful Asia.

“I don’t deliberation the medication has a strategy toward China,” said Bonnie Glaser, a China adept astatine the German Marshall Fund of the United States. “It has a commercialized strategy, not a China strategy.”

“The medication does not look to beryllium focused connected contention with China,” said Jonathan Czin, a erstwhile CIA expert present astatine Washington’s Brookings Institution. “It’s focused connected woody making. ... It’s tactics without strategy.”

“We’ve fallen into a benignant of commercialized and exertion myopia,” helium added. “We’re not talking astir issues similar China’s coercion [of smaller countries] successful the South China Sea. … China doesn’t privation to person that bigger, broader conversation.”

It isn’t wide that Trump and Xi volition person either the clip oregon inclination to speech successful item astir thing different than trade.

And adjacent connected the front-burner economical issues, this week’s ceasefire is improbable to nutrient a imperishable peace.

“As with each specified agreements, the devil volition beryllium successful the details,” Burns, the erstwhile ambassador, said. “The 2 countries volition stay fierce commercialized rivals. Expect friction up and further commercialized duels good into 2026.”

“Buckle up,” Czin said. “There are apt much abrupt moves from Beijing ahead.”

In the agelong run, Trump’s bequest successful U.S.-China relations volition remainder not lone connected commercialized deals but connected the larger contention for economical and subject powerfulness successful the Pacific Rim. No substance however this week’s meetings go, those challenges inactive prevarication ahead.