Mohamed El-Erian Sounds Alarm As China's US Treasury Share Hits 15-Year Low At 7%

2 hours ago 3

Rishabh Mishra

Wed, February 18, 2026 astatine 6:31 AM CST 4 min read

Renowned economist Mohamed El-Erian has signaled a large structural displacement successful planetary concern arsenic China's stock of the U.S. Treasury marketplace plummeted to a 15-year low, raising concerns implicit aboriginal request for American debt.

Data shared by El-Erian reveals that China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries present correspond conscionable 7% of the full marketplace share—a staggering driblet from the 28% highest recorded 15 years ago. The full holdings person fallen to astir $682.6 billion, the lowest level since 2008.

“As illustrated successful these MacroMicro charts, China's holdings of US Treasuries person continued to fall,” El-Erian noted successful a station connected X.

He emphasized that the diminution is adjacent much pronounced erstwhile viewed against the backdrop of a “steady issuance of caller securities by the US government.”

As illustrated successful these MacroMicro charts, China's holdings of US Treasuries person continued to fall.
Given the dependable issuance of caller securities by the US government, China's stock of full UST holdings has dropped adjacent much — to 7%, a 4th of the 28% highest reached 15 years… pic.twitter.com/vagpQgsxuy

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Based connected the information from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, present are the percentage changes successful 10-year Treasury yields as of Feb. 12, 2026. The existent 10-year Treasury output stands astatine 4.09%.

Lookback Period

Historical Date

Historical Yield On 10-Year Treasury

Percentage Change

Absolute Change

5-Year	Feb 12, 2021	1.20%	+240.83%	+2.89 pp
10-Year	Feb 12, 2016	1.74%	+135.06%	+2.35 pp
15-Year	Feb 11, 2011	3.64%	+12.36%	+0.45 pp

Source: FRED

5-Year Change: The astir melodramatic increase, with yields much than tripling from historically debased pandemic-era rates of 1.20% to 4.09%
10-Year Change: Also important maturation of 135%, reflecting the semipermanent betterment from the ultra-low complaint situation of 2016
15-Year Change: More humble summation of 12.36%, arsenic the 2011 output of 3.64% was already comparatively person to existent levels

The retreat coincides with a broader Chinese strategy to trim reliance connected the U.S. dollar amid heightening geopolitical tensions.

As the U.S. nationalist indebtedness approaches $39 trillion, Beijing has reportedly advised its home banks to bounds their vulnerability to Treasury securities, pivoting alternatively toward golden and different hard assets. China's golden reserves person present risen for 15 consecutive months, reaching a grounds 2,308 tonnes.

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