Meta’s $125 Billion AI Push Is Turning Heads on Wall Street

Chris MacDonald

Mon, July 13, 2026 astatine 11:31 AM CDT 4 min read

Quick Read

• Meta raised 2026 capex guidance to $125-$145 billion, astir $50 cardinal much than past year, portion Q1 gross grew 33% twelvemonth implicit year.

• Despite META falling 13% since Q1 earnings, 57 analysts complaint it a bargain with an $828 statement target.

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$125 cardinal to $145 billion. That is what Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) present expects to walk connected superior expenditures successful 2026, raised from a anterior scope of $120 to $135 cardinal erstwhile the institution reported first-quarter results connected April 29, 2026.

Now, this is forward-looking guidance, not a reported figure. That said, this fig stands against a 2025 full-year capex basal of $72.215 billion. The framing writes itself: Meta is preparing to deploy astir $50 cardinal much connected AI infrastructure this twelvemonth than last, and CFO Susan Li told analysts the rise reflects "higher constituent pricing this twelvemonth and, to a lesser extent, further information halfway costs to enactment future-year capacity."

What It Means

The standard is what stops you. In the archetypal 4th alone, Meta spent $18.997 cardinal connected capex, up 46.8% twelvemonth implicit year. The institution besides disclosed that multiyear unreality deals and infrastructure acquisition agreements drove a $107 cardinal measurement up successful contractual commitments during the quarter. Zuckerberg framed the walk directly: "We are investing aggressively to conscionable our infrastructure needs and guarantee we maximize our strategical flexibility implicit the coming years."

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What backs the walk is simply a concern inactive compounding astatine scale. Q1 gross came successful astatine $56.311 billion, up 33.08% twelvemonth implicit year, with operating income of $22.872 cardinal and a 41% operating margin. Ad impressions roseate 19% and mean terms per advertisement roseate 12%, some twelvemonth implicit year, portion household regular progressive radical reached 3.56 billion. Free currency travel was $12.386 cardinal successful the quarter, and operating currency travel reached $32.226 billion. Additionally, reported EPS of $10.44 exceeded expectations against a statement of $6.6587, though investors should enactment the bushed was inflated by an $8.03 cardinal one-time taxation payment tied to U.S. Treasury guidance connected capitalized R&D, worthy $3.13 per share.

Market Reaction

Meta shares person not rewarded the Capex raise. From the Q1 filing day connected April 29, 2026 done July 2, 2026, the banal is down 12.81%, moving from $668.53 to $582.90. Year to date, shares are disconnected 11.54%. Over the past week, however, the banal has moved higher by 7.37%, and 1 TradingKey study attributed a 7.56% single-day summation connected July 1 to plans to motorboat a unreality infrastructure concern selling excess AI computing capacity.