LISA DAFTARI: Trump's Iran MOU is just a framework — now comes the real test

The Trump administration's memorandum of knowing (MOU) with the Islamic Republic of Iran is simply a framework, not a last deal, and the quality betwixt the 2 is the quality betwixt a generational triumph and a generational mistake. 

The MOU volition beryllium judged connected a azygous question. Does the last statement verifiably dismantle Iran's atomic programme and region its enriched uranium stockpile from the regime’s hands, oregon does it negociate their way to a weaponry the mode the JCPOA did? There is nary 3rd option. 

Anything successful betwixt is the 2015 woody connected antithetic letterhead, and a mismanagement of the leverage the Trump medication has gained successful this war. 

President Trump's instinct that the strategical imperative is nonproliferation is correct. The Islamic Republic is weaker contiguous than astatine immoderate constituent since 1979. Maximum unit was working. The interior unit was astatine a boiling point. The authorities came to the array due to the fact that it had to, not due to the fact that it wanted to, and that is the leverage the U.S. is successful information of trading away.

TRUMP NUCLEAR TALKS FACE DEFINING QUESTION: WHAT HAPPENS TO IRAN’S URANIUM STOCKPILE?

resident Donald Trump (C) gestures arsenic helium addresses the media alongside United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer (L), US Commerce caput Howard Lutnick (2L), US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (2R) and US Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent (R) during a closing property league astatine the G7 summit, successful Evian, eastbound France (Mandel NGAN / AFP via Getty Images)

Is determination adjacent a woody that volition beryllium upheld by a duplicitous regime? Perhaps not, but astatine the precise least, a last statement that locks successful dismantlement, stages sanctions alleviation against demonstrated compliance, and preserves each snapback instrumentality would beryllium much prudent. A repetition of the JCPOA's structure, wealth up beforehand and a managed way to enrichment, would beryllium the astir costly diplomatic concession successful modern memory.

 The JCPOA had 2 fatal flaws, and some are avoidable.

The archetypal was the currency transfer. Between unfrozen assets and nonstop payments, the Islamic Republic received astir $100 cardinal successful spendable resources wrong the archetypal signifier of the agreement. That wealth did not spell to schools oregon hospitals. It went to the IRGC, to Hezbollah, to the Houthis, to Hamas, to the proxy web that has defined the determination information situation for the past decade. Front-loaded sanctions alleviation does not animate bully behavior. It pays for the panic proxies. 

The 2nd was the architecture of the sunset clauses. The 2015 statement did not halt the Iran atomic program. It lone managed their way to the bomb. By 2030, connected paper, each meaningful regularisation lifts. The authorities understood the woody not arsenic a containment authorities but arsenic a hold regime, and it utilized the hold to beforehand enrichment, grow rocket capacity, and entrench the precise infrastructure the statement was expected to constrain. 

President Pezeshkian said Iran would rebuild the atomic facilities targeted by the US, and marque them stronger successful 2025. (Iranian Presidency / Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The last MOU statement indispensable invert that logic. Restrictions indispensable beryllium imperishable and verification indispensable beryllium intrusive. Enrichment capableness indispensable beryllium physically removed, not paused.

There is simply a 3rd information that does not get capable attraction successful Washington and is non-negotiable successful Tehran. There needs to beryllium a credible menace of effect astatine the infinitesimal of noncompliance. 

The Islamic Republic honors agreements lone erstwhile the outgo of usurpation exceeds the benefit. That equation has to beryllium disposable to the authorities astatine the signing array and astatine each consequent inspection. That means kinetic options stay connected the table. Economic warfare tools stay ready. Political unit escalates automatically. Snapback cannot beryllium procedural. It indispensable beryllium automatic and it indispensable bite.

What is this statement for? If it is to forestall an Iranian atomic weapon, past dismantlement and surrender of enriched uranium are the lone acceptable terms. If it is to stabilize the Strait of Hormuz oregon to trim determination friction, those are secondary objectives that should beryllium pursued done different instruments. Conflating nonproliferation with determination diplomacy is what produced the JCPOA. The 2015 woody tried to bash excessively galore things and ended up doing nary of them.

The U.S. subject struck 3 atomic sites successful Iran connected Saturday, June 21, 2025. (Fox News graphic)

The Iranian radical are not an afterthought successful this negotiation. They are a constituency. The authorities they unrecorded nether has executed an estimated 42,000 of them successful the January protests alone. Two much governmental prisoners were hanged since the MOU was announced. Any statement should origin successful the motivation and strategical world of a authorities that murders its ain citizens connected an concern scale.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

This is the infinitesimal for the medication to garbage a atrocious woody and to specify a bully one. Verifiable dismantlement. Permanent restrictions. Staged sanctions alleviation tied to sustained compliance. Snapback with teeth. Enriched uranium retired of authorities hands. 

The authorities came to the array due to the fact that unit worked. The president should retrieve wherefore helium had leverage successful the archetypal place, and usage it.