J.B. Hunt sees TL rates climbing 20% over next 2 years

2 days ago 3

Todd Maiden

Thu, May 14, 2026 astatine 9:18 AM CDT 3 min read

J.B. Hunt Transport Services sees truckload rates climbing 20% implicit the adjacent 2 years arsenic stricter regulatory enforcement continues to region capacity. Carriers are looking to reconstruct TL and brokerage margins aft years of monolithic outgo inflation. Furthermore, operator wages are stepping higher successful definite markets, contributing to the rising operational costs being passed done to shippers.

While astir TL upcycles are driven by demand, the ongoing betterment has chiefly been a supply-side phenomenon. During the Bank of America industrials league successful New York connected Tuesday, enactment from J.B. Hunt (NASDAQ: JBHT) said that first-quarter request exceeded expectations and conditions person remained dependable since. While the nutrient and concern segments are performing well, the lodging assemblage continues to beryllium a challenge.

Even without important request catalysts, it’s “steady arsenic she goes, rates are going up,” said Brad Hicks, president of dedicated declaration services.

During the first-quarter net season, astir truckload carriers raised bid play complaint expectations from a scope of low- to mid-single-digit increases to mid- to high-single digits. Some carriers said that definite accounts, particularly transactional-oriented customers, volition apt spot double-digit complaint hikes.

Outbound Tender Rejection Index (OTRI.USA) for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), 2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line). A proxy for motortruck capacity, the tender rejection scale shows the fig of loads being rejected by carriers. Current tender rejections amusement a tightened truckload market.</em> <em>To larn much astir SONAR, <a href="https://gosonar.com/" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" data-ylk="slk:click here;elm:context_link;itc:0;sec:content-canvas" data-yga="{"yLinkElement":"context_link","yModuleName":"content-canvas","yLinkText":"click here"}" class="link ">click here</a>.</em>

Van Contract Rate Per Mile Index (VCRPM1.USA) for 2026 (blue shaded area), 2025 (yellow line), <em>2024 (green line) and 2023 (pink line).</em> The scale shows a 7-day moving mean of the archetypal reporting of adust van declaration rates without substance oregon accessorial charges.</em>

J.B. Hunt’s outlook for a 20% two-year-stacked complaint summation includes a double-digit tally complaint by the backmost fractional of this year. It is presently seeing “a batch of bid activity” extracurricular of the emblematic yearly complaint rhythm arsenic customers look to fastener down capacity.

Its dedicated contracts person consumer-price escalators that tally betwixt 2% and 4% annually. This year’s tally complaint is apt to beryllium 3% to 3.5%. However, extremist shifts successful costs (like operator wages) tin effect successful higher complaint increases.

J.B. Hunt has seen an net turnaround implicit the past 3 quarters, mostly owed to interior initiatives. It has been taking marketplace stock successful intermodal and truckload, and successful brokerage much recently. It besides has a ample cost-reduction inaugural successful place.

It has importantly outgrown the Eastern intermodal market, wherever its volumes are up 20% connected a two-year-stacked comp. Pricing was modestly affirmative successful the past bid season, but the premix displacement East, wherever lengths of haul are shorter, has been a headwind to yields. It has been palmy taking complaint connected headhaul lanes but it has had to cede crushed connected backhaul moves.

Management said it volition apt beryllium the adjacent bid rhythm earlier it tin meaningfully summation rates, but noted precise bully modal conversion opportunities arsenic intermodal is moving astatine a 20% to 25% discount to TL. (FreightWaves information shows the mode is 25% cheaper.)

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