Is Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) A Good Stock To Buy Now?

Is MOH a bully banal to buy? We came crossed a bullish thesis connected Molina Healthcare, Inc. connected Dasam’s Substack. In this article, we volition summarize the bulls’ thesis connected MOH. Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s stock was trading astatine $150.12 arsenic of April 20th. MOH’s trailing and guardant P/E were 16.83 and 29.76 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

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Molina Healthcare, Inc. provides managed healthcare services to low-income families and individuals nether the Medicaid and Medicare programs and done the authorities security marketplaces successful the United States. MOH reported a shocking Q4 2025 adjusted nonaccomplishment of $2.75/share, acold beneath Wall Street’s $0.34 estimate, driving the banal down ~28% to ~$126, nether Michael Burry’s $165 introduction price. Full-year 2025 EPS of $11.03 missed guidance by much than half, and 2026 EPS guidance of $5.00 stunned analysts expecting $13.76, with management labeling it a “trough year.”

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The institution faces 3 compounding challenges: Medicaid rates are 300–400 ground points beneath existent costs, driven by rising behavioral health and pharmacy expenses and GLP-1 cause usage; Marketplace/ACA losses intensified arsenic enhanced subsidies expired, with the sickest patients dominating the hazard pool, prompting a 66% rank reduction; and California contributed a $135 cardinal retroactive Medicaid accommodation successful Q4, exacerbating losses.

Despite the near-term pain, Burry’s thesis holds: Molina maintains a debased disbursal ratio of 6.4%, a GEICO-like outgo advantage, a afloat acquisition pipeline, and embedded aboriginal net of ~$11/share from existing contracts. Regulatory protections guarantee Medicaid complaint catch-up, and the Florida CMS declaration unsocial could adhd $4–5/share erstwhile afloat ramped. At ~$126, the banal trades astatine ~4.5x normalized net versus Burry’s embedded EPS targets.

Key risks see a deeper-than-expected trough, antagonistic $535M operating currency travel successful 2025, rising indebtedness to $3.77B, and slower Medicaid complaint betterment until mid-2027. Marketplace losses and California retroactive adjustments present structural uncertainty, portion imaginable FMAP reductions stay a factual threat.

Overall, Molina confirms its structural advantages, but realizing Burry’s semipermanent thesis volition necessitate patience, a multi-year horizon, and tolerance for short-term volatility, with the upcoming May 8, 2026 Investor Day serving arsenic a pivotal catalyst for the story’s progression making it an charismatic accidental for diligent investors.