Iraq War flashbacks? Experts say Trump’s Iran buildup signals pressure campaign, not regime change

As U.S. forces surge into the Middle East amid escalating tensions with Iran, the subject posture is drafting comparisons to the 2003 Iraq War buildup. But subject experts and erstwhile officials accidental that portion the standard of disposable unit whitethorn look similar, the plan and intent are fundamentally different.

In aboriginal 2003, the United States assembled much than 300,000 U.S. unit successful the region, backed by astir 1,800 conjugation craft and aggregate Army and Marine divisions staged successful Kuwait and Saudi Arabia up of Operation Iraqi Freedom. The unit was built for invasion, authorities removal and occupation.

Today’s deployment tells a antithetic story, arsenic the lack of massed crushed forces remains the clearest opposition with 2003.

"I judge determination is perfectly nary volition to enactment crushed forces into Iran. So the buildup is precise different," retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, erstwhile NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, told Fox News Digital.

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The world’s largest craft bearer USS Gerald R. Ford is seen successful the North Sea during Exercise Neptune Strike 2025. The photograph was taken successful the North Sea successful September 2025. (Jonathan Klein/AFP via Getty Images)

"What is happening is that some firepower and supplies are being moved to the close places … Amateurs speech tactics; professionals speech logistics. And close present we are getting logistics right, not lone successful the signifier of shooters but supplies to prolong an effort," helium said.

John Spencer, enforcement manager of the Urban Warfare Institute, told Fox News Digital that "the strategical nonsubjective successful some cases is coercion, shaping an adversary’s determination calculus done disposable subject power, but portion the standard of the buildup whitethorn look comparable, what is being mobilized and threatened is fundamentally different."

"In 2003, the United States assembled a ground-centric unit built for authorities removal, territorial seizure and occupation," helium said. "Today’s posture is maritime and air-heavy, centered connected bearer onslaught groups, long-range precision onslaught and layered aerial defense, signaling wide readiness to enactment portion besides sending an arsenic wide connection that determination are nary boots connected the crushed planned."

"The caller U.S. subject buildup against Iran — which present includes 2 craft bearer conflict groups, successful summation to dozens of different U.S. planes that person been sent to bases successful the portion and aerial and rocket defence systems — provides President Trump with a important magnitude of subject capableness should helium authorize subject operations against Iran," said Javed Ali, subordinate prof astatine the University of Michigan’s Ford School and erstwhile elder counterterrorism official.

Ali noted that U.S. capabilities already successful the portion astatine Al Udeid Air Base successful Qatar, Diego Garcia successful the Indian Ocean and different locations springiness Washington aggregate onslaught options.

If ordered, helium said, operations "would precise apt beryllium wide successful scope against a scope of targets similar the ruling clerical establishment, elder officials successful the IRGC, cardinal ballistic rocket and drone production, retention and motorboat facilities, and elements of Iran's atomic infrastructure, and past for days if not longer."

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Soldiers of the British Light Infantry administer assistance packages to locals astatine Zubayr adjacent Basra, confederate Iraq. Britain, a cardinal state successful the U.S.-coalition, was successful complaint of information successful Iraq's confederate portion until its withdrawal successful 2007.

Breedlove said the incremental deployment of carriers and aerial assets appears designed to summation pressure, not trigger contiguous war.

"We brought successful 1 bearer conflict radical that did not alteration the rhetoric successful Iran… truthful present the president has started sailing a 2nd bearer conflict radical to the area. I deliberation each of these things are expanding the unit dilatory connected Iran to assistance them travel to the close decision… Let’s beryllium down astatine the array and fig this out."

Ali emphasized different large difference: ineligible authorization and conjugation structure. The 2003 Iraq War was authorized by a legislature Authorization for Use of Military Force and backed by a ample planetary coalition, including tens of thousands of British troops. "Currently, nary akin AUMF has been approved by Congress for subject operations against Iran, which mightiness mean President Trump whitethorn invoke his lasting authorization nether Article II of the US Constitution arsenic Commander successful Chief arsenic a substitute ineligible basis, fixed the threats Iran poses to the United States," helium said.

The craft bearer Pre-Commissioning Unit (PCU) Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) pulls into Naval Station Norfolk for the archetypal time. The first-of-class vessel — the archetypal caller U.S. craft bearer plan successful 40 years — spent respective days conducting builder's oversea trials, a broad trial of galore of the ship's cardinal systems and technologies. (U.S. Navy photograph by Matt Hildreth courtesy of Huntington Ingalls Industries/Released) (©Newport News Shipbuilding 2017)

That does not mean escalation is risk-free. Ali warned Iran could respond with "ballistic rocket attacks" successful acold greater frequence than past strikes, on with drones, cyber operations and maritime disruption successful the Persian Gulf.

Breedlove pointed to lessons learned from Iraq. "We privation to person a wide acceptable of objectives… we bash not privation to participate an endless benignant of conflict with Iran… we request to person a program for what’s time positive one," helium said, informing against repeating past mistakes wherever subject occurrence was not matched by post-conflict planning.

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The world's largest craft carrier, the U.S. Navy nuclear-powered Ford-class craft bearer USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) arrives successful St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, Dec. 1, 2025. (Seaman Abigail Reyes/U.S. Navy/Handout via Reuters)

The cardinal subject distinction, analysts say, is this: 2003 was an penetration architecture. Today is simply a deterrence and onslaught architecture.

The unit present successful spot is optimized for aerial superiority, long-range precision strikes and sustained naval operations — not for seizing and holding territory. Whether that posture succeeds successful compelling Iran backmost to negotiations without crossing into unfastened struggle whitethorn beryllium little connected numbers than connected however each broadside calculates the outgo of escalation.