Iran's ceasefire push may be a 'cycle of deception,' analysts warn as shadowy figure gains power

President Donald Trump suggested Wednesday that Iran whitethorn beryllium seeking a ceasefire, but analysts accidental existent powerfulness lies with hardline figures wrong the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including recently salient commandant Ahmad Vahidi.

Trump did not sanction the Iranian fig helium was referring to, but his remark apt pointed to President Masoud Pezeshkian, writing: "Iran’s New Regime President, overmuch little Radicalized and acold much intelligent than his predecessors, has conscionable asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We volition see erstwhile Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, arsenic they say, backmost to the Stone Ages!!!"

Experts caution, however, that Iran’s president does not power decisions of warfare and peace.  

"He intelligibly does not person the authorization to crook connected oregon crook disconnected a large subject struggle with the United States," Behnam Ben Taleblu, a elder chap astatine the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.

TRUMP’S IRAN STRATEGY SHOWCASES ‘DOCTRINE OF UNPREDICTABILITY’ AMID STRIKE THREATS AND SUDDEN PAUSE

Iranian Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi speaks during a property league aft the parliamentary elections successful Tehran, Iran, March 4, 2024.  (Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via Reuters)

Instead, analysts accidental existent powerfulness lies with elder figures tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including Vahidi, parliamentary talker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and information authoritative Mohammad Zolghadr, each of whom run wrong overlapping centers of influence.

Attention is turning to the caller panic main seen arsenic an extremist pulling strings, Vahidi — a longtime Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commandant whose reemergence highlights a broader displacement underway wrong Iran’s leadership.

Beni Sabti, an Iran adept astatine the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, warned that adjacent erstwhile Iran signals involvement successful a "ceasefire," it whitethorn not bespeak a Western knowing of the term. 

He pointed to the conception of "hudna," describing it arsenic "a ceasefire with deception — they halt erstwhile they are weak, rebuild their strength, and past onslaught again, whether against Israel oregon the United States." 

Sabti added that specified pauses tin go "a rhythm of unit that does not end," driven by ideological motivations, and should not beryllium interpreted arsenic a genuine extremity to hostilities.

Ahmad Vahidi, commandant of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, and Iraj Masjedi, Deputy Coordinator of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force, enactment successful a ceremonial to people the representation of erstwhile IRGC commander, Hossein Salami, who is killed successful Israeli attacks, astatine a mosque successful an IRGC organizational location analyzable successful Tehran, Iran, connected July 25, 2025.  (Morteza Nikoubazl/Nur Photo via Getty Images)

From covert operations to planetary attacks

At the halfway of that uncertainty is Ahmad Vahidi, the caller Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander. 

"He is simply a precise convulsive antheral and belongs to a procreation that fought successful guerrilla warfare," Sabti told Fox News Digital.

Sabti described Vahidi arsenic portion of an aboriginal cadre of Iranian operatives who built ties with militant groups successful Lebanon earlier and aft the 1979 revolution, relationships that aboriginal became cardinal to Iran’s determination strategy. Some accounts suggest Vahidi trained successful camps linked to Palestinian and Lebanese factions successful confederate Lebanon, helping laic the groundwork for Iran’s long-standing confederation with Lebanon-based panic radical Hezbollah. 

DESTROY THE REGIME’S POWER WITHOUT OCCUPYING IRAN: A SMARTER WAR PLAN

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf looks connected arsenic parliament members chant successful enactment of the IRGC portion wearing subject uniforms successful Tehran, Iran, Feb 1, 2026.  (Hamed Malekpour/Islamic consultative assembly quality agency/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters)

Vahidi roseate done the ranks of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and went connected to service arsenic commandant of its elite Quds Force successful the 1990s, a portion liable for overseas operations.

He has been linked to immoderate of the deadliest attacks attributed to Iranian-backed networks abroad, including the 1992 bombing of the Israeli Embassy successful Argentina and the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish assemblage halfway successful Buenos Aires.

Sabti said Vahidi was besides accused of maintaining connections with al Qaeda figures pursuing the Sept. 11 attacks, reflecting what helium described arsenic Iran’s willingness to cooperate with groups targeting Western and Israeli interests.

Despite aboriginal holding positions that appeared governmental oregon bureaucratic, Sabti said Vahidi ne'er genuinely stepped distant from the Revolutionary Guards, Iran’s almighty subject and quality arm, meaning his relation remained intimately tied to the regime’s information and operational apparatus.

"He ever remained portion of the Revolutionary Guards — adjacent wearing uniform," helium said. "That’s communal successful Iran. Even erstwhile they determination into politics, they enactment wrong the force."

Sabti besides pointed to Vahidi’s alleged relation successful suppressing Kurdish uprisings successful northwestern Iran successful the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, underscoring his longstanding engagement successful interior information operations. 

HEGSETH REVEALS COVERT VISIT TO TROOPS FIGHTING IN OPERATION EPIC FURY

A composite representation shows respective Iranian leaders named successful the State Department’s Rewards for Justice programme offering up to $10 cardinal for accusation connected cardinal figures tied to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including Mojtaba Khamenei, apical left. (State Department / Rewards for Justice; Khoshiran / Middle East Images / AFP via Getty Images)

A strategy driven by power, not position

Vahidi’s renewed prominence comes arsenic Iran’s interior operation appears progressively fragmented, with authorization concentrated successful overlapping and sometimes competing networks.

"It’s not wide however coordinated either the subject oregon governmental actions of the authorities of the Islamic Republic is today," Ben Taleblu said.

He described Iran arsenic "a strategy of men, not a strategy of laws," wherever idiosyncratic ties and informal power often outweigh ceremonial titles.

That dynamic has intensified arsenic the warfare continues. 

"We are seeing the IRGC ascendancy… crossed a big of Iranian governmental and information institutions," helium said.

"This IRGC ascendancy volition mean a much crass Islamic Republic, but it comes astatine a clip erstwhile this authorities is militarily little susceptible than ever before," helium added.

More power, little restraint

Sabti said Vahidi whitethorn present beryllium much influential than different salient figures successful Tehran, including parliamentary talker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

"In my view, helium is much ascendant close now, adjacent if they are coordinated. This is not a clip for interior competition," Sabti said.

He warned that Vahidi’s emergence could further harden Iran’s posture.

"He brings adjacent much radicalization into the strategy and whitethorn not privation to halt the war, due to the fact that it serves the interests of the Revolutionary Guards to continue," Sabti said.

"They could go masters of the portion if the United States folds — and that is precise overmuch successful his interest."

Trump’s proposition that Iran is seeking a ceasefire has raised hopes of a imaginable diplomatic opening, but experts caution that specified signals whitethorn not bespeak a unified presumption wrong Iran. 

"The question is what was shared with President Trump genuine, oregon is it wheeling and dealing of conscionable 1 ambitious person?" Ben Taleblu said.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian attends a property league successful Tehran, Iran, Sep. 16, 2024.  (WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Majid Asgaripour via Reuters)

"Pezeshkian intelligibly does not person the authorization to crook connected oregon crook disconnected a large subject struggle with the United States," Ben Taleblu said.

That leaves unfastened the anticipation that immoderate outreach could beryllium tactical, fragmented, oregon adjacent contradictory.

Fox News Digital reached retired to the White House for remark but did not person a effect successful clip for publication.