Iran regime power players may eye Russia in Assad-style escape as US talks falter: expert

The evident illness of high-stakes U.S.-Iran negotiations has intensified fears that elder figures wrong Tehran’s enactment could fly to Russia, seeking refuge to "continue their insurgency and undermine immoderate caller regime," an expert warns.

The breakdown successful talks comes arsenic Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu besides told CBS’ "60 Minutes" that toppling Iran’s authorities could present adjacent beryllium a realistic outcome.

Netanyahu noted that immoderate illness would dismantle the "scaffolding" of Tehran's planetary panic proxy network, besides perchance ending Hezbollah's power successful the region.

"The full scaffolding of the violent proxy web that Iran built collapses if the authorities successful Iran collapses," Netanyahu said.

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President Donald Trump said U.S. subject strikes connected Iran were truthful effectual they eliminated overmuch of the regime’s anticipated enactment succession bench, raising questions astir who volition pb the Islamic Republic. (Mohsen Ganji/AP:Office of Supreme Leader of Iran)

"I deliberation you can’t foretell erstwhile that volition happen. Is it possible? Yes. Is it guaranteed? No," helium warned.

With diplomatic options possibly exhausted and the regime's stableness successful question, an adept suggests the exit strategy immoderate enactment whitethorn beryllium eyeing mightiness beryllium akin to that of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who fled Syria successful 2024.

"If the concern deteriorates further, immoderate elder figures could perchance travel a way similar Bashar al-Assad’s interior ellipse and question refuge successful Russia," Middle East adept Saeid Golkar told Fox News Digital.

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While apical commanders would perchance beryllium Moscow-bound, lower-ranking figures would much apt caput for Iraq oregon Afghanistan, Middle East adept Saeid Golkar told Fox News Digital. (Hamed Malekpour/Islamic Consultative Assembly News Agency/WANA)

Golkar, a elder advisor astatine United Against Nuclear Iran, noted that formation destinations would apt beryllium connected rank.

While apical commanders similar Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf mightiness caput to Moscow, lower-ranking figures would much apt question structure successful Iraq oregon Afghanistan, wherever the IRGC maintains operational connections, helium clarified.

"For the astir elder figures, Russia would astir apt beryllium the astir apt destination, again arsenic we saw with Bashar al-Assad," Golkar said, noting galore officials person already moved wealthiness into "financial networks extracurricular Iran."

The existent situation started pursuing the decease of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei earlier successful 2026 during the onset of Operation Epic Fury.

While his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was named successor, reports proceed to bespeak helium was severely injured successful the strikes and has been absent from caller negotiations.

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Mojtaba Khamenei, the caller ultimate person of Iran and 2nd lad of the precocious Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is "either dormant oregon successful atrocious condition," according to Golkar. (Hamed Jafarnejad/ISNA/WANA/Reuters)

Golkar explained that the "invisible state," oregon Bayt-e Rahbari, was designed to past decapitation, portion the ideological outgo of fleeing for leaders would beryllium high.

"Inside the regime’s ideological culture, leaving the state during the illness would look similar desertion," Golkar noted.

However, arsenic subject fractures deepen and succession remains uncertain, the "Assad model" of seeking Russian extortion appears progressively charismatic to those astatine the top.

Mojtaba, however, is "either dormant oregon successful atrocious condition, that helium cannot nonstop immoderate video oregon dependable message," Golkar added.

"If helium had died from his injuries, determination was nary wide earthy successor. He was the continuation of the regime."

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"Still, the strategy was designed for continuity during a crisis," Golkar said, adding that the extremity is to "make definite the authorities could past adjacent if ceremonial institutions were damaged, leaders were killed, oregon civilian authorities stopped functioning."

"I would picture it arsenic a authorities designed not conscionable to govern, but ever to effort and past decapitation," Golkar added.