Iran-backed Houthi threat in Red Sea could lead to major US policy shift, analysts say

JOHANNESBURG: As the Iran-backed Houthis measurement up their menace to Red Sea shipping, analysts accidental the U.S. could see a large alteration successful strategy.

Houthi attacks connected ships passing done a captious chokepoint whitethorn pb Washington to cement relations with much reliable partners on Africa’s coastline.

Somaliland is simply a pro-U.S. outpost, having breached distant from war-torn Somalia successful 1991, and is offering the U.S. the usage of 1 of the longest runways successful Africa, an aerial basal and a heavy oversea larboard connected the Red Sea.

IRAN AND HOUTHI TERROR PROXY FACING RED SEA THREAT FROM PRO-US AFRICAN NATION

An aerial presumption of The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a oversea way connecting the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea via the Suez Canal. (Gallo Images/Orbital Horizon/Copernicus Sentinel Data 2021)

The Houthis person vowed to adjacent the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, a constrictive waterway done which Saudi Arabia exports up to 7 cardinal barrels of lipid a day, present that entree to the Strait of Hormuz is severely restricted. In the past period successful the Red Sea, the Houthis person reportedly attacked Saudi-flagged ships, are said to person sunk an Indian commercialized cargo vas and connected Aug. 13, an Egyptian cargo vessel was hit, with astatine slightest 4 of its unit killed.

The U.S. already has a ample subject basal connected the Red Sea successful Djibouti, but this is claimed to beryllium progressively problematic. "China is importantly expanding its subject and commercialized beingness successful Djibouti", Edmund Fitton-Brown antecedently told Fox News Digital.

Fitton-Brown, the erstwhile British ambassador to the Houthis’ location country, Yemen, and a elder chap astatine the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, (FDD), added,"There is simply a consciousness that Djibouti is not a reliable state for the U.S. So Somaliland’s clip has astir apt come."

Major General Ken Ekman, who retired past twelvemonth from being the Department of War’s West Africa Coordination Element Lead, said, successful essence, the Houthis could unit the U.S. into recognizing Somaliland arsenic an autarkic state. "The Houthis could compel a antithetic U.S. strategy successful Africa."

TRUMP THREATENS 'MAJOR MILITARY PUNISHMENT' FOR IRAN OVER FUTURE HOUTHI ATTACKS

This handout surface drawback captured from a video shows Yemen's Houthi fighters' takeover of the Galaxy Leader Cargo successful the Red Sea seashore disconnected Hudaydah, connected Nov. 20, 2023 successful the Red Sea, Yemen. (Photo by Houthi Movement via Getty Images)

Ekman said the Houthis are gathering up a 2nd beforehand successful this Middle East conflict. "It distracts the U.S. and stretches our assets," helium added.

"The Houthis person a strategy of their own. They are investigating U.S. subject ability, and are apt to propulsion the trigger successful a large mode erstwhile Iranian power successful the Strait of Hormuz wanes successful leverage."

He said that precocious the U.S. Africa Command, AFRICOM, has concentrated connected looking astatine land-based threats. "To date, our Africa strategy is driven by counterterrorism missions against Islamist al Qaeda and ISIS-linked groups based successful Africa."

He continued, "These groups airs a constricted and not contiguous menace to the U.S. homeland. Overall, Red Sea basing to day has focused much connected situation effect successful East Africa, countering and competing against Russia and China."

COULD THIS AFRICAN NATION BECOME TRUMP'S NEXT TERROR TARGET AS JIHADISTS CLOSE IN ON POWER?

U.S. Air Force Gen. Dagvin Anderson, commander, U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM), meets with President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, president of Somaliland, successful Hargeisa, Somaliland, Nov. 26, 2025. The gathering was portion of Gen. Anderson’s travel successful East Africa to conscionable with authorities and defence leaders to fortify America’s strategical attack to confronting coercion done communal engagement, stronger cooperation, and aligned information priorities. (U.S. Army photograph by Cpt. Ubon Mendie)

Ekman added, "orienting a Horn of Africa strategy against the Houthis would spot a premium connected state of navigation. Somaliland is proximate and overcomes immoderate of the limitations imposed by different determination hosts similar Djibouti and Middle East partners."

Limitations and an evident consciousness of vexation with Somalia, Somaliland’s neighbour and rival, person been expressed successful a informing from U.S. Air Force Gen. Dagvin Anderson, commandant of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM.)

In a caller interrogation with a Somali journalist, helium was asked whether the U.S. was pulling retired of the federation and turning its backmost connected it.

Anderson said the U.S. has not turned its backmost connected Somalia, having been committed to the state for respective years, helium noted the occurrence of its counterterrorism radical known arsenic DANAB, which helium said is "one of the astir susceptible forces connected the continent." He noted that "it was up to Somalia to prolong that force… to physique it and proceed to marque it effectual going into the aboriginal and usage it arsenic it was designed to antagonistic terrorism."

A wide presumption of the Berbera Port astatine dusk, the authoritative seaport of Berbera, the commercialized superior of Somaliland, connected Feb. 18, 2026. . (Tony Karumba / AFP via Getty Images)

Referring to the Somali government’s evident deficiency of quality to woody decisively with Islamist al-Shabab terrorists, Anderson seemingly hinted astatine pulling immoderate oregon adjacent each subject support. "If Somalia steps up and the authorities steps up and takes the pb connected this, we volition proceed to beryllium determination due to the fact that determination is communal interest."

He continued, "But if we can’t spot that in, the governmental instability and governmental infighting continues, past it’s going to beryllium precise hard for america to proceed to enactment engaged."

Bill Roggio, exertion of the Long War Journal, said Washington is fed up with Mogadishu, but presently not capable for the U.S. to alteration allegiance to Somaliland.

He told Fox News Digital, "The U.S. has expressed displeasure with the Somali government's rampant corruption and interior infighting with section and determination governments, and with assorted clans. However, afloat designation of Somaliland independency would make a large rift betwixt the U.S. and Somalia."

U.S. forces reason cognition targeting ISIS successful Somalia. Aug, 2025. (Hannah Kantner/AFRICOM)

Roggio didn’t regularisation retired the U.S. operating a 2nd Red Sea basal successful Somaliland, saying "U.S. forces situated astatine Camp Lemonnier successful Djibouti are acold amended situated geographically to deter the Houthis from shutting down the Bab el Mandeb Strait than a imaginable basal successful Somaliland. That being said, redundancy (back up plan) is simply a bully happening successful subject operations."

"The United States needs reliable partners connected Africa's coastline," Bashir Goth, Somaliland Representative to the United States, told Fox News Digital.

Goth said,"Somaliland is that spouse and our defence officials person been successful progressive dialog with AFRICOM connected Red Sea security. Somaliland has the geography, the stableness and the volition to enactment intimately with Washington — and volition proceed to bash so."

TRUMP SAYS IRAN WILL PAY — WHAT IT TAKES TO END THE WAR REMAINS UNCLEAR

A Houthi follower looks on, during a pro-Iran demonstration, arsenic the U.S.-Israel struggle with Iran continues, successful Sanaa, Yemen April 6, 2026. (Khaled Abdullah/Reuters)

Officially, the U.S. inactive stands with Somalia, successful penchant to Somaliland.

A State Department spokesperson told Fox News Digital, "The United States works with Somali and planetary partners to code violent threats successful Somalia erstwhile indispensable and due to support U.S. nationalist information interests."

In the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia and 13 different nations established a caller maritime defence conjugation to combat the Houthi threat. Publicly, astatine least, the U.S. is not portion of this coalition.

Responding to questioning connected this issue, a State Department spokesperson told Fox News Digital, "The United States stands firmly with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia against Houthi terrorism. We are successful adjacent consultation with our Saudi allies and stay committed to their security."

The U.S. does look though to beryllium stepping up enactment with Somaliland. AFRICOM Commander Anderson again visited Somaliland this past week, with an authoritative connection saying helium "traveled to the larboard metropolis of Berbera to measure the information situation and reappraisal the port’s operational capacity."

Somaliland's Minister of Defense, Mohamned Yusuf Ali, led a delegation to conscionable US Africa Command (AFRICOM) astatine their Headquarters successful Stuttgart, Germany, Aug 2. Red Sea information was discussed. (Somaliland Ministry of Defense.)

In the aforesaid week, the U.S. reportedly hosted a delegation of Somalilanders led by the state’s defence curate astatine AFRICOM HQ successful Stuttgart, Germany, wherever Red Sea information was reportedly again discussed.

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AFRICOM and the Department of War did not respond to Fox News Digital requests for accusation astir the visits.