Hedera (HBAR) Outperforms Crypto Market With a 10% Bounce — But New Risks Emerge

Hedera’s HBAR is outperforming the broader crypto market. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are up astir 2% implicit the past day, HBAR terms contiguous has gained astir 10% implicit the past week and astir 8% successful the past 24 hours, trading adjacent $0.096 astatine property time.

The rally has raised expectations of a breakout. But momentum, volume, and derivatives information suggest hazard is rising faster than conviction.

HBAR has been trading wrong a falling wedge signifier since precocious 2025.

Since aboriginal February, HBAR has rebounded from adjacent to the little bound of this operation and climbed toward the precocious trendline adjacent $0.098. This level has capped the terms aggregate times and present acts arsenic cardinal resistance.

If HBAR breaks and holds supra this zone, the wedge’s measured determination points toward an upside of implicit 50% from existent levels. However, momentum is starting to weaken. The Relative Strength Index, oregon RSI, measures buying and selling strength. When RSI rises, momentum improves. When it weakens, momentum fades.

Between February 6 and February 12, HBAR struggled to determination decisively supra $0.098 and began forming a imaginable little high. At the aforesaid time, RSI continued making higher highs.

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This creates a hidden bearish divergence. It happens erstwhile the terms fails to corroborate improving momentum. It often signals that buyers are becoming stretched adjacent resistance.

This does not bespeak a inclination reversal. But it shows that upside ratio is declining arsenic the terms approaches a captious level. The divergence menace passes if the existent HBAR terms candle touches $0.098, invalidating the lower-high theory.

Money and leverage indicators reenforce this warning. One cardinal metric is Chaikin Money Flow, oregon CMF. CMF tracks whether ample superior is flowing into oregon retired of an plus by combining terms and volume. When CMF stays supra zero, beardown organization buying is present. When it remains beneath zero, large inflows are missing.

Between December 31 and February 11, HBAR’s CMF has trended higher portion the terms trended lower. This divergence supported the caller rebound. CMF has besides breached supra its descending trendline. But CMF remains beneath the zero line.

This means selling unit has eased, but beardown accumulation has not returned. The rally is inactive driven chiefly by short-term traders alternatively than ample wallets. Derivatives information adds further risk. Open involvement measures the full worth of progressive futures contracts. When it rises, leverage successful the marketplace increases.