Half-year report: How markets have fared in the first half of 2026 and in Q2

GlobalData

Wed, July 1, 2026 astatine 10:27 AM CDT 11 min read

The extremity of June marks month-end, quarter-end and archetypal half-end for 2026. It's been a topsy-turvy twelvemonth already and we've seen a batch of rotational churn crossed equity markets adjacent arsenic they've deed caller highs. Gold and bitcoin person done alternatively little well. The AI traded has shifted from hyperscalers to those companies benefitting from their monolithic spending. A caller Fed seat has acceptable successful bid a authorities displacement that volition person important implications for fiscal markets going forward. The UK's premier curate resigned. A resurgent dollar sent the yen to a 40-year debased arsenic US ostentation rose. SpaceX went into orbit with its IPO earlier crashing backmost to world astir arsenic swiftly.
Some large shifts person taken spot successful the past 3-6 months. One, the US-Iran warfare has retreated into the rearview mirror, with lipid prices backmost to pre-war levels. Two, the AI commercialized has seen accrued attraction but a displacement distant from Mag7 (ex-Nvidia) to semis and representation stocks, which person flown. Software was out, successful came hardware and infrastructure stocks. Three, the marketplace is adjusting to a caller Fed authorities that volition beryllium quicker to set argumentation rates successful bid to conscionable its objectives. These are the parameters for the adjacent 6 months and the forthcoming net play is captious to however the remainder of the twelvemonth goes. In the UK we person governmental magnitude to contend with arsenic Andy Burnham takes complaint successful Number 10 shortly, which volition contiguous investors with tricky questions astir the way of economical argumentation – peculiarly successful narration to borrowing and however this could interaction gilt yields.

How's it been successful Q2?

The marketplace bottomed connected 30 March, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting their rhythm lows astatine that constituent pursuing the onset of the US-Iran war. Whilst the shooting rumbled connected markets started to marque beardown gains arsenic the absorption of question shifted materially towards peace. That means we shouldn't work excessively overmuch into the quarterly show of immoderate of the large indices owed to marketplace timing the 4th extremity truthful neatly. Nevertheless, it's been a precise bully 4th for equities.

The MSCI All World roseate +14% for the quarter, the champion 2nd 4th show successful 6 years. The rally has been ace concentrated successful the AI trade, peculiarly successful Asia wherever South Korea, Japan and Taiwan person been standout performers. The Nasdaq has added astir 20% for the 4th contempt dropping 4% successful June. The S&P 500 is astir 14% higher contempt a astir –2% pullback successful June - 1 time of commercialized to spell we should note. It's been the champion 4th successful six years for the 2 large indices, portion the Dow has had its champion since 2022. The champion performing US stocks (min $10bn marketplace cap) were each chipmakers - Astera Labs, SanDisk, Micron, Intel, United Microelectronics, Silicon Motion Technology, Marvell Technology, AMD.