From $91B to $2.3B: The Catastrophic Collapse of America’s EV Industry

Morning Brew Daily's July conception framed the U.S. electrical conveyance manufacture successful stark terms. They argued that Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID), erstwhile valued astatine $91 billion, is present worthy conscionable $2.87 billion, portion Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) has fallen from a highest adjacent $150 cardinal to astir $25 billion. The impermanent expert connected the amusement argued that some pure-play startups are "one boardroom determination astatine different institution away" from collapse, and that neither institution is expected to crook currency travel affirmative earlier 2030. The numbers backmost the framing.

Lucid: A Saudi-Funded Life Raft

Lucid closed astatine $7.36 connected July 17, leaving the banal down 76.41% implicit the past twelvemonth and 97.99% beneath its November 2021 level. Revenue is scaling. Losses are scaling faster. Q4 2025 gross reached $522.73 million, portion deliveries roseate 72% twelvemonth implicit twelvemonth to 5,345 vehicles. The institution reported a GAAP nett nonaccomplishment of astir $814 cardinal and antagonistic escaped currency travel of $1.24 cardinal for the quarter. For the afloat twelvemonth 2025, gross totaled $1.35 billion, portion escaped currency travel was antagonistic $3.8 billion.

Cost of gross exceeded gross successful each 4th of 2025, highlighting a persistent gross-margin occupation alternatively than simply a standard challenge. Cash and currency equivalents declined to $997.83 cardinal astatine year-end, portion Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund expanded Lucid's word indebtedness installation to astir $2.0 billion. CEO Marc Winterhoff characterized 2025 successful the Q4 8-K arsenic a twelvemonth of "execution and strategy adjustment."

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Rivian: Volkswagen, Uber, and the DOE Are the Backstop

With Rivian, Q1 2026 gross came successful astatine $1.38 billion, portion escaped currency travel was antagonistic $1.08 billion. Cash declined from $4.81 cardinal successful Q2 2025 to $2.85 cardinal successful the latest reported period. Regulatory recognition gross fell from $299 cardinal successful Q4 2024 to $29 cardinal successful Q4 2025, reducing a antecedently meaningful root of high-margin income.