Famed Venture Capital Fund Says this Stock is Like Buying Nvidia in 2023

When a Sequoia Capital spouse compares a freshly nationalist banal to NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) 3 years ago, investors wage attention. That is precisely what Sean MacGuire did connected CNBC this week, arguing that "SpaceX close present is much similar Nvidia 3 years agone than Tesla." He went further connected his idiosyncratic positioning, adding, "Me arsenic an individual, I'm going to clasp my shares forever."

NVIDIA traded astatine $42.69 connected June 16, 2023 and closed astatine $204.40 connected June 12, 2026. MacGuire is telling viewers that SpaceX is sitting astatine the aforesaid benignant of inflection.

The Newly Public SpaceX Trade

SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) made its marketplace debut connected Friday, June 9, 2026, and the portion has been hot. Shares added much than $400 cardinal successful marketplace worth yesterday. They're up different 13% contiguous arsenic of 1:00 p.m. ET. At its IPO terms of $135, SpaceX was valued astatine $1.77 trillion. Today, shares are worthy $2.85 trillion. That's worthy much than Amazon and lone somewhat down Microsoft.

That valuation is being supported by a real, if early, fiscal engine. According to the company's S-1, full-year 2025 gross grew 33.2%, with the Connectivity conception unsocial adding $3.788 cardinal arsenic Starlink subscribers expanded from 4.4 cardinal to 8.9 cardinal implicit the year. By the archetypal 4th of 2026, subscribers had reached 10.3 cardinal and Connectivity conception adjusted EBITDA deed $2,087 cardinal for the quarter.

MacGuire has immoderate reasons to judge the institution could deed precise outsized targets successful the future.

MacGuire's Inflection Thesis

The existent tally complaint is astir $18.5 cardinal annually. MacGuire projects gross could scope the hundreds of billions of dollars by 2030, a presumption that is his forecast alternatively than guidance from the company. He besides said Q4 2026 should amusement astir 200% year-over-year maturation versus Q1 2026, driven by 3 converging catalysts:

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• Starship. The S-1 confirms SpaceX expects Starship to commence payload transportation to orbit successful the 2nd fractional of 2026, with milestones already including booster catch-and-reuse and in-space cryogenic propellant transfer. MacGuire characterized the programme arsenic already acold on and "guaranteed to work," a assurance level that remains his opinion.

• Orbital information centers. SpaceX is openly pursuing orbital AI compute astatine standard and AI spot manufacturing, though the S-1 cautions these initiatives are successful aboriginal stages and whitethorn ne'er scope commercialized viability.

• Starlink direct-to-cell. Starship enables deployment of next-generation V3 satellites and direct-to-cell constellations, expanding the addressable marketplace beyond rooftop terminals.