Double-edged sword of Trump cut New Jersey Republicans down to size

The New Jersey gubernatorial predetermination was expected to beryllium a razor-thin race. It was to beryllium the metallic lining against 2 predictable Democratic victories successful Virginia and New York City. Instead, Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill crushed Republican Jack Ciattarelli by 13 points, 56% to 43%. In the days to travel we volition analyse the results and pore implicit demographics, but arsenic a idiosyncratic who has been progressive successful Jersey authorities for respective decades, and served arsenic seat of a Republican region party, we person to admit mistakes if we are going to win.

Terminating the Gateway task successful the mediate of a gubernatorial predetermination volition spell down arsenic 1 of the worst mistakes successful governmental history. President Donald Trump is, and has been, the double-edged sword. Ciattarelli needed much of his voters to crook out, and Sherrill utilized Trump arsenic the boogeyman to crook retired democrats.

The Trump factor

During Fox News predetermination nighttime coverage, anchor Martha MacCallum noted, "When you look astatine President Trump’s numbers successful 2024 successful New Jersey helium was capable to crook 5 counties solidly reddish and those counties did not travel that signifier with Jack Ciattarelli and it raises question, if it’s not Trump connected the ballot, tin you determination the shot successful immoderate of these reddish districts?" The reply is simply a hard no.

FOX NEWS POLL: NEW JERSEY GOVERNORSHIP REMAINS DEMOCRATIC WITH SHERRILL WIN

Trump voters ballot for Trump. They don't ballot for different Republicans. I joined Dana Perino for her "Perino connected Politics" podcast and said that if we aftermath up Wednesday greeting and the low-propensity Trump voters stayed home, it volition beryllium Gov.-elect Sherrill. Trump did 2 tele-rallies for Ciattarelli but would an in-person Trump rally person helped get those voters to crook out? Personally, I deliberation it would person helped, but possibly I person passageway vision.

Democratic Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill speaks during an predetermination nighttime enactment successful East Brunswick, New Jersey, Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

Tunnel Vision

On Oct. 14, Trump announced the termination of the Gateway project, a multibillion-dollar commuter obstruction project. Sherrill was capable to usage this cancellation arsenic a large enactment of onslaught successful bluish New Jersey, wherever hundreds of thousands of New Jerseyans commute to New York and walk hours successful brutal traffic. If the Democrats had voted to reopen the government, that contented would person been disconnected the table, but it was a mistake to terminate the task successful the mediate of a gubernatorial election.

FOX NEWS POLL: SHERRILL LEADS CIATTARELLI IN NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR’S RACE

Did Republicans person passageway imaginativeness and not spot that voters were aggravated and blaming them for the cancellation of a task that would marque their commute easier? Back to the double-edged sword. If Ciattarelli had attacked Trump implicit the issue, adjacent much Trump voters would person stayed home. Either way, it gave Sherrill a beardown enactment of onslaught successful the closing weeks of the campaign.

Message

Sherrill said she would frost energy rates connected time one. Even Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy conceded it was a fantasy, saying, "I’m not definite however you’d really bash that." Regardless, it’s a elemental connection and radical think, great, my rates won’t spell up.

NEW JERSEY GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATES TOUT EARLY VOTING NUMBERS AS TRUMP LOOMS OVER TIGHT RACE

When asked astatine the municipality hallway hosted by Sean Hannity what the archetypal happening helium would bash arsenic governor, Ciattarelli said helium would motion an enforcement bid ending sanctuary cities. While that connection was indispensable to crook retired the low-propensity Trump voters, it intelligibly should not person been the archetypal enactment arsenic governor. First and foremost, radical were looking for economical relief. Back to the double-edged sword.

The polls

CLICK HERE FOR MORE FOX NEWS OPINION

Highly respected polls that accurately predicted the statesmanlike contention successful 2024 said this contention was wrong the borderline of error. AtlasIntel, which says, "AtlastIntel was the astir close pollster of the US Presidential Election 2nd clip successful a row, some astatine the nationalist level and successful cardinal plaything states," released a canvass connected Oct. 31, saying, "The New Jersey politician contention is close. The script beneath shows Mikie Sherrill (D) starring Jack Ciattarelli (R) by lone 0.9pp – a quality wrong the borderline of error."

As a erstwhile Republican Party region president and strategist, I tin intelligibly accidental that we request further methods to measure however voters are feeling due to the fact that polling drives the message. We besides person to fig retired however the betting markets tin beryllium truthful close erstwhile immoderate polls are truthful wrong.

CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX NEWS APP

There volition beryllium much to accidental but the double-edged sword struck hard and present the New Jersey Republican Party volition beryllium torn apart. The lone question is whether New Jersey is genuinely a bluish authorities oregon would a stronger clasp of President Trump person turned the tide Ciattarelli’s way? If helium had announced helium had talked to Trump and got the backing restored for the tunnel, would that person changed everything? It is hard to spot however thing could person made up the 13% gap, but amended polling mightiness person helped redirect the connection to 1 New Jerseyans really cared about.