1 hour ago
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David Beren
Sun, May 24, 2026 astatine 1:14 PM CDT 5 min read
Quick Read
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Nvidia (NVDA) reported Q1 FY2027 gross of $81.61B, up 85% twelvemonth implicit year, with information halfway gross of $75.25B, non-GAAP EPS of $1.87, and escaped currency travel of $48.55B, portion Microsoft (MSFT) posted Q3 FY2026 gross of $82.89B with Azure increasing 40% and AI tally complaint hitting $37B, and Alphabet (GOOGL) grew gross 22% successful Q1 2026 with Google Cloud expanding 63% and raised full-year capex guidance to $180-$190B.
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The tech industry’s monolithic AI infrastructure buildout is sustainable lone if enslaved markets stabilize, arsenic rising Treasury yields and planetary debt-to-GDP ratios of 310% endanger the financing costs for the unprecedented capex spending by Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet.
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The expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable named his apical 10 stocks and Google wasn't 1 of them. Get them present FREE.
On a caller All-In Podcast occurrence featuring impermanent Gavin Baker, the roundtable looked astatine the nonstop aforesaid economical information and came distant with wholly antithetic concern outlooks. David Friedberg is highly focused connected gathering a planetary enslaved situation and a sovereign indebtedness spiral. Gavin Baker is acold much bullish, arguing that America's vigor independency and monolithic technological pb mean it is winning the astir captious contention successful history. Meanwhile, Chamath Palihapitiya lands determination successful the middle, preferring to constrictive his portfolio down to a fewer high-conviction names. As you presumption your ain superior for the backmost fractional of 2026, knowing this halfway model matters a batch much than rooting for immoderate azygous verdict.
Friedberg's indebtedness spiral
Friedberg's carnivore lawsuit starts with a azygous number. "Global indebtedness to GDP is 310%. Reserve currency presumption to the side. The spending occupation astatine the federal, state, section level, the spending occupation successful each country... yet breaks." He points to the agelong extremity of the curve arsenic grounds that enslaved markets are pricing the problem, citing the 30-year Treasury astatine 5.2% and flagging a imaginable unwind of the Japanese transportation commercialized arsenic a imaginable catalyst.
The hard economical information wholly backs up the concern, arsenic the 30-year Treasury closed astatine a steep 5.11% connected May 21, 2026, sitting close astatine the precise apical of its trailing 12-month scope arsenic the enslaved marketplace grapples with expanding indebtedness supply. Meanwhile, the 10-year output has climbed to 4.58%, cementing a notable monthly surge that is driving up borrowing costs crossed the economy. At the aforesaid time, the dispersed betwixt 2-year and 10-year yields has flattened retired importantly adjacent the bottommost of its yearly range. Long-rate accent is becoming a large world for investors, adjacent if accepted recession signals are not flashing reddish conscionable yet.
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