Death Cross Confirmed: Is Bitcoin Bottoming or About to Crash?

Lockridge Okoth

Sun, November 16, 2025 astatine 3:50 PM CST 4 min read

The Bitcoin (BTC) terms enactment triggered a Death Cross connected Sunday, November 16, aft its 50-day moving mean dipped beneath the 200-day moving average.

Historically considered a bearish method signal, the lawsuit has sparked caller statement among traders and analysts. The cardinal question: does this people a section bottom, oregon is simply a further driblet looming?

In method analysis, a Death Cross occurs erstwhile short-term terms momentum falls beneath semipermanent trends, signaling imaginable downward pressure. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades astir $93,646, aft slipping beneath the $94,000 threshold for the archetypal clip since May 5.

Market sentiment is highly bearish, with the Fear & Greed Index plunging to 10, indicating utmost fear. Meanwhile, whale selling and spot ETF outflows person accelerated caller downward moves.

Amidst these antagonistic sentiments and fearfulness of further downside, analysts accidental that a Death Cross does not automatically foretell crashes.

Historical information from 2014 to 2025 shows mixed short-term outcomes but beardown medium- to semipermanent rebounds successful galore cycles.

Data shared by Mario Nawfal and on-chain analysts indicates:

• 1–3 weeks post-cross: Returns are astir 50/50 betwixt gains and losses; median returns somewhat affirmative (~0.25–2.35%).

• 2–3 months post-cross: Average gains leap to 15–26%, suggesting a imaginable betterment if humanities patterns hold.

• 12 months later: Outcomes alteration widely; immoderate cycles delivered 85%+ gains, others experienced terrible drawdowns, depending connected the macro context.

Benjamin Cowen and Rekt Fencer reason that erstwhile Death Crosses person often marked section lows, alternatively than marketplace tops. The timing of the adjacent bounce could beryllium critical. If BTC does not rally wrong 7 days, analysts pass different limb down could precede a larger recovery.

Technical and macro indicators item important thresholds: