DAVID MARCUS: In rural Virginia, mixed signals for Trump and the GOP

LEXINGTON, Va. – President Donald Trump’s canvass numbers are a spot each implicit the spot these days. The averages person him astir 7 points underwater, portion immoderate surveys amusement him down arsenic overmuch arsenic 19. And then, 1 poll, the astir close of 2024, has him up 1 constituent astatine 50%.

Likewise, ample majorities of Americans accidental successful polls that they privation each amerciable immigrants deported, but ample majorities besides accidental that the Trump medication is going excessively acold successful executing this policy. 

So, what bash the American radical really want?

Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger has ended agreements betwixt authorities instrumentality enforcement agencies and national migration authorities.  (Marvin Joseph/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

I traveled to Lexington, Va., to get a consciousness for what the world is connected the ground, beneath these shaky and inconsistent canvass numbers, and what I recovered was bully quality and atrocious quality for some parties and a midterm that is inactive wide open.

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Brian, from adjacent Lynchburg, was visiting municipality with his woman Erin. A cook successful his aboriginal 50s and a erstwhile Republican, helium finds Trump’s coarseness, and what helium would telephone his racism, specified arsenic the caller societal media station featuring the Obamas arsenic monkeys, to beryllium a dealbreaker.

Brian was precise absorbing because, portion helium knew helium could not tolerate Trump, helium was besides rather forthright astir the antagonistic tradeoffs successful voting for Democrats. When I asked him, arsenic a concern owner, astir Virginia’s caller governor, Abigail Spanberger, his effect was telling.

"I voted for her," Brian told me. "Part of maine wishes I hadn’t had to, but I did, fixed the alternative."

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The alternate present seemed to beryllium Trump, not Spanberger’s existent hostile and erstwhile Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, thing that immoderate Republican reasoning of moving by distancing themselves from Trump should consider. It astir apt won’t enactment anyway.

I pressed a spot connected Spanberger, asking Brian if the question of caller taxes she supports worries him.

"Absolutely it worries me," helium said. "I’m a fiscal conservative. I person to equilibrium my budget, and the authorities should too. But if the alternate is racism, past I person to cull that."

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Never caput that Sears is African-American. Brian was the cleanable illustration of wherefore Democrats absorption truthful overmuch connected contention and radical issues. For immoderate voters, alleged racism connected the president's portion volition trump adjacent their ain argumentation beliefs and preferences and taint the enactment helium rules.

This improvement tin besides look similar fools golden to pollsters who spot a elector with immoderate blimpish leanings who should beryllium obtainable, but some, similar Brian, conscionable flat-out volition ne'er enactment Trump oregon the GOP truthful agelong arsenic Trump leads it.

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears, left; President Trump, right. (Al Drago/Getty Images; Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

As Brian bluntly enactment it, "If it's men successful women’s sports oregon racism, I person to spell with men successful women’s sports."

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But it wasn’t each atrocious quality for Trump successful agrarian Virginia. Alice, who is successful her 40s and works successful existent estate, thinks the Trump’s economical measures are starting to wage off.

"I tin conscionable consciousness it," she told me. "Gas prices are low, much worldly is connected merchantability astatine the grocery. That's what we voted for."

When I asked astir Trump’s gruff manner, the 1 that bothered Brian truthful much, she conscionable said, "If you aren’t utilized to it by now, you’re not getting utilized to it."

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Others, similar Peter, successful his 70s and retired, are feeling a existent governmental fatigue. Apathy is the incorrect word, but possibly vexation fits.

"Today, it's similar who you ballot for is your full identity," helium said. "But I can’t autumn retired of a histrion each clip Donald Trump opens his mouth.

On Friday afternoon, a tiny protestation of mostly older White radical was gathered connected a thoroughfare country successful pretty-as-a-picture Lexington. Annette, the person and spokesperson, was handing retired cookies. Unlike their peers successful Minneapolis, they were blessed to speech with the press.

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"This is what we feared each along," 1 antheral holding the Virginia authorities emblem with its motto, ‘Sic Semper Tyrannis,’ told maine of the Trump administration’s handling of Minneapolis. "It’s wherefore we person been retired present protesting for a year."

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Generally speaking, the immense shifts that pollsters are truthful ardently looking for look to beryllium much successful the satellite of numbers than that of soma and blood, wherever it continues to beryllium precise uncommon to conscionable anyone who has changed their caput politically successful the property of Trump.

No, the fearfulness for Republicans contiguous is not that Trump oregon the enactment are bleeding support. It's that the Democrats connected the crushed look acold much motivated to halt Trump than the Republican voters are to reward dilatory and dependable progress.

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Importantly, determination does not look to beryllium thing that Trump could do, immoderate presumption helium could soften, beryllium it connected migration enforcement, tariffs oregon his ain rhetoric, that volition sway the 3rd of voters who conscionable detest the man. But some Trump and the enactment person proven they tin triumph without them.

From present until the midterm, we volition beryllium successful the tract with our receptor connected the ground, listening to the things that voters ne'er archer the pollsters. And if Lexington is immoderate indication, this is inactive anybody’s ballgame.

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