Copper Analyst: America Needs as Much Copper in the Next 18 Years as It Mined in the Last 10,000 Years

5 hours ago 3

Thomas Richmond

Wed, June 10, 2026 astatine 10:21 AM CDT 4 min read

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Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) surged 54% implicit the past twelvemonth and CPER gained 26%, arsenic copper futures precocious deed a grounds $6.60 per pound.
Dreyfus argues the US indispensable excavation 700 cardinal tons of copper successful 18 years, a fig that matches each of humanity's output implicit the past 10,000 years.
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Dan Dreyfus, laminitis of Borneite Capital, made a striking lawsuit for copper connected a caller quality connected the All-In Podcast. By his calculations, simply keeping up with mean GDP maturation would necessitate the satellite to extract 700 cardinal tons of copper implicit the adjacent 18 years, which is astir the aforesaid magnitude humanity has mined implicit the past 10,000 years. That examination sits astatine the halfway of his structural bull case.

An expansive aerial presumption of a monolithic open-pit mine, characterized by its deep, multi-tiered operation of concentric terraces. The exposed world displays varied shades of reddish-brown, airy gray, and darker brown, indicating antithetic geological layers. Winding ungraded roads traverse the terraces, and respective ample mining trucks are disposable arsenic tiny acheronian specks on these paths. In the mid-ground, flatter areas incorporate concern buildings and inferior poles, each nether a bright, perchance hazy sky. The wide content is 1 of immense concern standard and ongoing assets extraction.

The Demand Shock

Dreyfus puts existent copper depletion astatine 30 cardinal tons per year, with electrification of the grid, EVs, and information centers driving request higher. He emphasizes that the shortfall exists adjacent earlier accounting for AI demand, and that the US grid faces shortfalls adjacent from mean electrification. Independent forecasters echo the directional call: an S&P Global survey cited successful Freeport McMoRan's filings projects copper request reaching 42 cardinal metric tons by 2040, and a abstracted S&P investigation warns the marketplace could look a shortage of much than 10 cardinal metric tons by 2040.

The Supply Shock

The different leaf of the scissors, starring to a monolithic copper shortfall, is supply. Dreyfus notes that only a fistful of tier-1 copper mines are coming online earlier 2030 and that caller mines instrumentality 7 to 12 years to build. Copper proviso is structurally inelastic: adjacent with prices astatine records, meaningful caller tonnage is years away. That spread is what underpins his prediction that "the copper terms is easy going to treble from here." Recent disruptions reenforce the point. Copper futures precocious touched a grounds supra $6.60 per pound, and Freeport's ain Grasberg mine, deed by a September 2025 mud rush, is not expected to beryllium backmost astatine afloat capableness until precocious 2027.

China and the National Security Dimension

Dreyfus ties captious minerals to US strategical vulnerability. As an example, China's April export cutoffs of uncommon world materials nearly unopen down Ford Motor Company's full accumulation line. The occurrence shows however concentrated power of captious inputs tin stall US manufacturing. Copper itself was added to the USGS List of Critical Minerals, and a 50% US tariff connected copper imports took effect successful 2025, helping home producers.

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