CLAY TRAVIS: The GOP's 2026 challenge — holding Trump's base when he's not on the ballot

One twelvemonth ago, Donald Trump won a transformative predetermination victory, sweeping each 7 plaything states, the fashionable ballot and moving each 50 states redder than they were successful 2020.

How did helium bash it?

By motivating men, young men successful particular, and sports fans who were fed up with the insanity of men winning women's sports championships. I wrote astir the triumph successful my caller book, "Balls," which was released connected Tuesday.  

The publication addresses the landslide Trump victory, but it besides asks an important question erstwhile looking guardant prospectively: Now that Trump, unfortunately, isn't capable to tally for re-election, however bash Republicans guarantee that the Trump MAGA conjugation extends, and adjacent grows, beyond his ain presidency?

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In 2024, the 2 astir blimpish voting groups successful America were antheral elder citizens and young men nether the property of 30.

This has ne'er happened earlier successful immoderate of our lives.

It was a taste translation overnight.

OutKick laminitis Clay Travis and the screen of his caller book, "Balls: How Trump, Young Men, and Sports Saved America." (FNC)

Trump besides won grounds enactment among White, Black, Asian and Hispanic men arsenic well, but that aforesaid momentum didn't widen to 2025. Indeed, Tuesday's voting results overgarment an ominous representation of what 2026 and 2028 could look similar if young men aren't motivated to amusement up and ballot similar they did successful 2024. 

Consider the numbers: successful 2024, Trump received 1.968 cardinal votes successful New Jersey and 2.075 cardinal votes successful Virginia. While helium mislaid some states by constrictive margins to Kamala Harris — by astir 5% — helium received much votes than the Virginia Democrat campaigner for governor, Abigail Spanberger — who won Virginia with 1.961 cardinal votes — and the New Jersey Democrat campaigner for governor, Mikie Sherrill — who won New Jersey with 1.792 cardinal votes. 

Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate, erstwhile Rep. Abigail Spanberger celebrates arsenic she takes the signifier during her predetermination nighttime rally astatine the Greater Richmond Convention Center connected Nov. 4, 2025. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

So however did some Democratic gubernatorial candidates triumph predetermination comfortably contempt receiving less votes than Trump did successful their states a twelvemonth ago? Yes, partially due to the fact that it was an off-year rhythm and wide turnout trended down, but they won comfortably due to the fact that astir 600,000 Trump voters didn't amusement up to ballot successful 2025 who did amusement up to ballot successful 2024.

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Who are these voters?

Young men, sports fans, bluish collar workers, the Trump MAGA basal that volition travel retired to enactment Trump erstwhile he's connected the ballot, but won't amusement up erstwhile he's not connected the ballot.

Rep. Mikie Sherrill, Democratic gubernatorial campaigner for New Jersey, during an predetermination nighttime lawsuit successful East Brunswick, New Jersey connected Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025. (Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

So volition these voters instrumentality successful 2026 and successful 2028 erstwhile Trump isn't connected the ballot? That depends connected however good aboriginal Republican candidates talk to these voters. Some of y'all volition deliberation I'm brainsick for telling you this, but arsenic soon arsenic the 2026 mid-term elections are over, expect a pivot truthful accelerated it volition marque your caput rotation — Democrats successful 2027 volition each reason that Trump's unsocial governmental gifts extremity with him, that MAGA is implicit without Trump arsenic its leader. Yep, from "He's Hitler!" to "He's the astir talented Republican president successful immoderate of our lifetimes," astir overnight.

I'm telling you, it's coming.

Because Democrats are going to slope connected Trump arsenic a governmental unicorn, a campaigner truthful talented that lone helium could powerfulness a conjugation arsenic important arsenic helium won successful 2024.

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So what bash Republicans request to bash to widen and adjacent turn Trump's entreaty with young men? I deliberation it's a operation of 3 things, wed the argumentation and the idiosyncratic together, arsenic Trump has been uniquely talented astatine doing.

1. On the argumentation front, the 2024 predetermination was astir the economy, the borderline and crime

It was arsenic casual arsenic EBC.

Trump won the arguments connected each 3 of these fronts. So far, Trump 2.0 has ended the borderline arsenic an contented by ending amerciable migration and driven transgression down to grounds lows successful galore states and cities. His situation connected the system is that Biden was truthful bad, it's taking clip to cleanable up his mess. With grounds precocious banal prices and grounds debased state prices, Trump is delivering for each of america with banal marketplace assets and each of america who person to capable up our tanks.

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But there's a lingering choler implicit however overmuch goods cost. Even I consciousness it each clip I bargain a Chick-fil-A repast for my family, and it costs implicit $50. For fast-food, really!

Prices went up truthful accelerated nether President Joe Biden that the sticker daze is inactive existent adjacent successful 2025. Trump has stopped the accelerated terms increases and, successful the lawsuit of immoderate purchases similar gas, has really brought them backmost little than they were during Biden, but that bitter aftertaste of ostentation takes clip to deterioration off.

So acold it hasn't.

2. Focus connected men successful women's sports

Is it the astir important contented successful the country?

No.

But it crystallizes the absurdity of Democrat policies for young men and sports fans, who provided the substance to Trump's grounds triumph successful 2024.

If you judge a antheral should beryllium capable to triumph a women's sports championship, however tin I spot your sentiment connected anything? As I wrote successful "Balls," this issue, combined with EBC, won Trump the predetermination successful 2024. 

I deliberation that volition inactive beryllium the connection successful 2026, too, because, amazingly, Democrats person doubled and tripled down connected defending men successful women's sports each implicit the country.

This contented isn't going away.

3. HAVE FUN and BE ENTERTAINING.

My 2 favourite moments of the 2024 run were erstwhile Trump dressed up arsenic a McDonald's worker and arsenic a garbage antheral and rode astir successful a garbage truck.

Was it absurd and ridiculous?

Of course.

But the fig 1 acquisition Trump has that helium receives zero recognition for is this: HE'S FUNNY!

Yes, authorities are serious. But they should besides beryllium fun. Trump is simply a blessed warrior and blessed warriors win.

The 2 astir palmy Republican presidents of my beingness were Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump. Both were, successful galore respects, nonrecreational entertainers. They knew however to chopped done the sound and were authentic successful the mode they did so.

Trump isn't perfect, nary of america are, but he's the astir comfy president successful his ain tegument that immoderate of america person ever seen, and helium has tremendous governmental instincts.

You tin walk a 100 cardinal connected an advertisement run and not get the escaped media attraction that Trump did, scooping retired fries and talking with voters astatine the drive-thru successful Pennsylvania. That benignant of politicking is unbeatable. Heck, I would reason the champion mentation of Trump is the 1 you get successful fast-food restaurants. He genuinely loves getting retired and interacting with people. That's a accomplishment that can't beryllium taught, but it tin beryllium emulated.

We utilized to inquire the question, which campaigner would you alternatively person a brew with? While Trump doesn't portion — arsenic he's jokingly said, tin you ideate what he'd accidental if helium drank? — he's authentic and real. As artificial quality takes implicit overmuch of the country, I judge authenticity volition go the astir important governmental cardinal to the realm.

Young radical successful particular, who are steeped successful societal media artificiality fed to them perpetually connected their phones, person an innate consciousness of erstwhile they're being poll-tested and marketed to, they sniff it retired amended than older voters.

If you privation them to amusement up and enactment you, you person to triumph their trust.

Which is wherefore I genuinely judge the predetermination was implicit erstwhile it came to antheral voters erstwhile Trump was changeable successful Butler, Pennsylvania.

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In that moment, having escaped decease by fractional an inch, Trump, whose critics had labeled him a phony, roseate up and screamed, "Fight, fight, fight!" 3 times. At that instant, the predetermination was implicit for antheral voters.

It was the bravest statesmanlike infinitesimal of my life.

But it was besides 1 of the astir authentic.

Republican statesmanlike campaigner Donald Trump is seen with humor connected his look surrounded by Secret Service agents arsenic helium is taken disconnected the signifier astatine a run lawsuit astatine Butler Farm Show Inc. successful Butler, Pennsylvania, July 13, 2024. (Getty Images/Rebecca Droke)

In times of large peril, your ain idiosyncratic quality is revealed. In those perilous milliseconds, Trump became a fable and won the election.

He proved erstwhile and for each helium had "Balls."

And truthful acold nary Democrat has proven that they do.

So agelong arsenic that remains the case, Republicans aren't going to suffer men.

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Which is wherefore the champion illustration of an oxymoron successful America contiguous isn't "jumbo shrimp," it's "masculine Democrat."

Because aft all, determination are surely large shrimp, but determination are inactive nary masculine democrats.

Clay Travis is the writer of the caller book, "Balls: How Trump, Young Men and Sports Fans Saved America." Buy it here.

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