Citi raises AstraZeneca earnings forecast and maintains 'buy' rating ahead of second-half pipeline catalysts

The slope said first-quarter results demonstrated the breadth of AstraZeneca's maturation and pipeline, with the pharmaceuticals radical delivering astir 2% up of statement earlier leaving full-year guidance unchanged. Citi's revised $10.30 forecast represents 12% maturation connected a changeless currency basis, successful enactment with statement and astatine the apical extremity of AstraZeneca's ain guidance range. Forecasts for 2027 to 2034 were besides nudged up by 1%.

Citi said capitalist absorption is apt to displacement to second-half catalysts wherever it sees the astir compelling risk-reward, citing 3 programmes successful particular: Wainua successful the CARDIO-TTRansform cardiovascular outcomes trial, camizestrant successful the SERENA-4 bosom crab study, and Datroway successful the AVANZAR trial.

The slope besides flagged elaborate information for tozorakimab, an interleukin-33 inhibitor being studied successful chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and efzimfotase alfa successful hypophosphatasia, a uncommon bony disorder, pursuing header results released successful the archetypal quarter.

Citi acknowledged immoderate hazard astir the SERENA-6 advisory committee gathering for Truqap, AstraZeneca's bosom crab treatment, but said immoderate downside was constricted to astir 1% of the company's nett contiguous value.

AstraZeneca has 11 further Phase III readouts inactive anticipated successful 2026, and the lack of anterior mid-30s borderline guidance from the company's results presumption appeared not to unsettle investors, with Citi noting this was apt implied wrong unchanged double-digit net maturation guidance.