China Against Everybody: The New Geopolitics of Rare Earth Elements

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David Beren

Sun, May 24, 2026 astatine 4:01 PM CDT 5 min read

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MP Materials (MP) reported Q1 2026 gross of $90.65M, up 49% twelvemonth implicit year, with NdPr accumulation hitting a grounds 917 metric tons and a Department of Energy terms extortion statement generating $42.3M successful specialized income. USA Rare Earth (USAR) posted Q1 archetypal gross of $5.70M from its Less Common Metals UK subsidiary and secured a $1.6B Department of Commerce CHIPS backing package. Energy Fuels (UUUU) operates the lone home accepted uranium mill and processes monazite for uncommon world oxides, avoiding the radioactive byproduct hurdles that derailed competitors.
China controls each measurement of the uncommon world proviso concatenation from mining done magnet-making, and gathering home U.S. capableness is described arsenic an impossibility overnight, forcing American companies to prosecute multi-year permitting and commissioning timelines portion competing against Beijing’s consolidated advantage.
The expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable named his apical 10 stocks and MP Materials wasn't 1 of them. Get them present FREE.

The astir quotable framing of America's uncommon world predicament this twelvemonth came from extracurricular the uncommon world manufacture itself. Speaking with Bloomberg Businessweek connected May 22, 2026, REalloys CEO Lipi Sternheim reduced geopolitics to a azygous line: "It utilized to beryllium lipid and OPEC. It's now, OPEC includes galore countries, truthful determination are checks and balances. Here you person China against everybody."

That is the thesis investors request to internalize. Rare world magnets beryllium wrong missiles, iPhones, and humanoid robots. The proviso concatenation runs done mining, separation of airy and dense elements, processing analyzable by radioactive uranium and thorium, metallizing, and magnet-making. China controls each step, and Sternheim's ain dense uncommon world processing for dysprosium and terbium is being built 35 kilometers from Uranium City successful Saskatchewan due to the fact that Canadian permits determination faster than EPA approval. Lynas dropped plans for a Texas processing works this twelvemonth implicit radioactive-materials permitting, and Sternheim's summary is blunt: gathering home capableness "overnight is an impossibility."

Prediction markets agree, arsenic Polymarket's question connected whether China would denote uncommon world export alleviation by May 22, astir the Trump-Xi summit, resolved "No" with a last terms of 0.001 connected measurement of 55,632, adjacent arsenic a parallel marketplace connected a Boeing craft acquisition resolved "Yes" astatine 0.999. Beijing volition commercialized jets, but it volition not commercialized leverage.

The expert who called NVIDIA successful 2010 conscionable named his apical 10 stocks and MP Materials wasn't 1 of them. Get them present FREE.

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