Brazil’s iron ore production to rise due to stronger Vale performance

GlobalData

Thu, April 2, 2026 astatine 10:41 AM CDT 3 min read

Brazil is the second-largest robust ore shaper successful the world, accounting for 16.7% of planetary accumulation successful 2024. The country’s robust ore accumulation is expected to person accrued by 1.9% successful 2025 to 437.2 cardinal tonnes (mt). The maturation was chiefly supported by the beardown accumulation from Vale, the country’s largest robust ore producer. Additionally, the gradual resumption of the pelletizing Plant No. 4 and the ramp-up of the 2nd concentrator astatine BHP’s Samarco excavation successful December 2024 further supported the country’s output.

In 2025, Vale's accumulation reached 336.1mt accounting for 76.9% of the country's output, making it instrumental successful driving the country's output growth. The Capanema excavation wrong Vale’s Mariana Mining Complex commenced operations successful September 2025 and volition adhd 15mtpa to the company’s 2026 accumulation target. In addition, enlargement of the Carajas Serra Sul S11D Project, which is scheduled to commencement successful H2 2026, and ramp up of the Vargem Grande 1 (of the Vargem Grande Mining Complex) volition further enactment output maturation successful 2026.

The upward accumulation inclination was partially offset by the little run-of-mine (ROM) availability astatine the Serra Norte, elevated attraction enactment astatine the Itabira, and a strategical pipeline inspection astatine the Minas-Rio completed successful mid-2024. Looking ahead, Brazil’s robust ore accumulation is expected to turn further by 5.9% successful 2026 to scope 462.9mt, supported by planned increases astatine Vale, which is targeting a accumulation scope of 335mt– 345mt successful 2026. Expansions astatine different large mines, including Gerdau Mining’s Miguel Burnier and CSN Mineracao's Casa de Pedra, volition further boost the country's output.

Over the forecast play (2026-2035), Brazil’s robust ore accumulation is expected to turn steadily astatine a compound yearly maturation complaint of 3.0% reaching 605.7mt by 2035, supported by sustained excavation expansions, ratio improvements crossed cardinal producing regions and commencement of caller mines specified arsenic the Block 8, Jambeiro, Morro bash pilar, Joao Monlevade, Serro 2030 and Colomi, Amapa and Bamin Restart projects successful 2031.

Brazil’s robust ore manufacture continues to look important challenges, including biology concerns, infrastructure bottlenecks, and societal conflicts, each of which person contributed to stricter scrutiny and operational disruptions successful caller years. Nevertheless, the state remains well-positioned for semipermanent maturation owed to its immense mineral reserves and ongoing enlargement initiatives by large producers. Supported by resilient planetary demand, Brazil’s beingness arsenic a cardinal robust ore supplier successful the planetary robust ore marketplace is expected to fortify implicit the coming years. The Brazilian authorities is actively updating its mineral argumentation framework, including a precocious launched nationalist consultation to revise the National Mining Plan 2050 for the semipermanent sustainable improvement of the sector. Furthermore, successful December 2025, the Senate’s Economic Affairs committee approved a connection to found a National Policy for Critical and Strategic Minerals. This argumentation aims to stimulate home processing and unafraid proviso chains, a determination that could power concern and accumulation dynamics successful the robust ore manufacture implicit the outlook period.