AstraZeneca faces China headwinds and key drug launches as two banks back 20% upside

UBS and Citi some support 'buy' ratings connected the Anglo-Swedish drugmaker up of its first-quarter results, with a affluent pipeline of objective catalysts adding to the concern case.

AstraZeneca PLC (LSE:AZN, NASDAQ:AZN) reports first-quarter 2026 results connected 29 April, with UBS flagging respective moving parts that investors volition ticker intimately erstwhile the numbers land.

In a preview note, UBS highlights continued beardown momentum expected from cardinal crab drugs Imfinzi, Tagrisso and Calquence, portion cautioning that Farxiga, a attraction for benignant 2 diabetes and bosom failure, is apt to amusement immoderate interaction from wholesaler destocking successful the US up of its nonaccomplishment of exclusivity (LOE), the constituent astatine which generic competitors tin participate the market.

UBS besides flags that 3 AZ drugs faced volume-based procurement (VBP) successful China during the quarter, a government-mandated pricing process nether which the institution chose not to connection terms concessions and, arsenic a result, was excluded from the programme, leaving Forxiga, Lynparza and roxadustat facing mandatory terms cuts of 20%, 30% and 30%, respectively.

On the outgo side, UBS anticipates higher selling and administrative expenses successful the archetypal 4th arsenic AstraZeneca prepares for launches of camizestrant and baxdrostat, 2 drugs successful late-stage improvement targeting bosom crab and cardiovascular disease, respectively.

UBS maintains its 'buy' standing and 12-month terms people of 17,600p, implying upside of astir 15% from the existent terms of 15,274p.

Citi is much bullish, raising its terms people to £180 from £170 aft updating its exemplary for first-quarter developments, with the bank's net per stock compound yearly maturation complaint forecast for 2027 to 2030 rising to 15% from 13%.

Citi's upgrade reflects accrued assurance successful camizestrant pursuing a rival drug's objective failure, which Citi says expands the addressable market, and a importantly higher probability of occurrence assigned to tozorakimab, a cause targeting lung disease, pursuing affirmative header proceedings data.

It besides maintains its 'buy' standing connected AZ.