2026 Kentucky Derby: Chris 'The Bear' Fallica's Expert Picks, Best Bets

"Bear Bets" are existent wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is really making.

Every year, sports fans displacement their attraction to Louisville connected the first Saturday in May for the Kentucky Derby. 

There’s conscionable thing incredibly peculiar astir the event, dubbed "The Most Exciting Two Minutes successful Sports." 

This is the 152nd "Run for the Roses," and careless of whether you indulge successful a fewer Mint Juleps, determination is amusive to beryllium had for each — peculiarly erstwhile it comes to laying a fewer wagers. 

So, let's leap into the action.

This leafage whitethorn incorporate affiliate links to ineligible sports betting partners. If you motion up oregon spot a wager, FOX Sports whitethorn beryllium compensated. Read much astir Sports Betting connected FOX Sports.

1. Renegade: 4/1 (bet $10 to triumph $50 total)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.

I’m successful a unusual spot with the Derby favorite. I person a bully aboriginal summons connected him and present that the contention is here, I don’t program connected utilizing him successful the winning spot connected immoderate different tickets. So if helium wins, great. If my handicapping present is correct, and he’s a non-factor, that’s large too. He’s won some of his races arsenic a 3-year-old. However, the reports of sore feet bash not animate a batch of confidence. Neither does the obstruction draw, for which I person immoderate stats further down successful the column. While it's existent being a person does mitigate immoderate of the concerns with the rail, the information is this equine mightiness not beryllium accelerated enough. His winning figures successful the Arkansas Derby and Sam F Davis are beneath what Chief Wallabee, Further Ado and Commandment are running. Remember too, it's not similar trainer Todd Pletcher has had a ton of occurrence present either — much connected that further successful this column, too. While it is besides existent Irad Ortiz Jr. astir apt had his prime of mounts successful this contention and chose Renegade, it conscionable feels similar determination are mode excessively galore "ifs" progressive here. If helium breaks, if his feet are OK, if helium tin get a trip, etc. I really deliberation helium volition not spell favored Saturday and, contempt being an overlay successful the wagering, I’m inactive lasting against.

2. Albus: 30/1 (bet $10 to triumph $310 total)
Trainer: Riley Mott
Jockey: Manny Franco

The longer changeable of the 2 Riley Mott runners successful present and deservedly so. Won a precise anemic Wood Memorial astatine 12-1 from mode disconnected the gait and being sired by Yaupon, I would beryllium perfectly stunned if this 1 was anyplace adjacent a superfecta finish, arsenic 1 1/4 miles does not look to beryllium successful his bloodlines.

3. Intrepido: 50/1 (bet $10 to triumph $510 total)
Trainer: Jeff Mullins
Jockey: Hector Berrios

Just worked an insanely accelerated 4 furlongs successful 45 seconds and trainer Jeff Mullins was nary excessively blessed astir it. Still, I’ll see this 1 underneath connected my trifectas and superfectas, arsenic he’s shown immoderate staying powerfulness to transportation connected and enactment disconnected the pace. That volition service him good here, truthful agelong arsenic that past workout didn’t state him.

4. Litmus Test: 50/1 (bet $10 to triumph $510 total)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia

Was favored against Silent Tactic successful the Rebel and lone 9/2 against Renegade successful the Arkansas Derby, and was obscurity to beryllium recovered successful either. Baffert, blinkers, Martin Garcia — we each cognize what the program is here. There volition beryllium immoderate that don’t privation to flip a Baffert velocity equine and I get it. But this $875k acquisition does not walk the litmus test. I’ll amusement myself out. He volition not beryllium connected my tickets.

5. Right to Party: 30/1 (bet $10 to triumph $310 total)
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Chris Elliott

I’ve heard this 1 does not look precise bully connected the track, which checks with him not looking bully connected insubstantial either. He's successful the contention due to the fact that helium got up for 2nd successful that mediocre Wood Memorial I mentioned above. Ken McPeek has won immoderate Triple Crown races with agelong shots, but this won’t beryllium different 1 of them.

6. Commandment: 6/1 (bet $10 to triumph $70 total)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luis Saez

Comes into the contention disconnected consecutive wins successful the 2 champion preps this year. Both were successful get-up precocious manner implicit horses helium volition look again here. That raises a question whether helium volition person arsenic fortunate a travel present to get immoderate bully luck and triumph fixed his moving style. One could besides reason he’s the astir accordant runner present and the astir apt to deed the board. Then determination are immoderate whispers he’s been a small sluggish lately. Read the workout reports, ticker the works and signifier your ain conjecture based connected each the info. He’ll beryllium connected my summons though, arsenic helium hasn’t tally a atrocious one.

7. Danon Bourbon: 20/1 (bet $10 to triumph $210 total)
Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe
Jockey: Atsuya Nishamura

While nary of the Japanese runners present person ever truly wowed america with a pre-Derby work, his Tuesday enactment was truly dilatory and disfigured looking. He’s won each 3 races successful Japan by borderline but that won’t beryllium the lawsuit here. I’ll beryllium leaving off.

8. So Happy: 15/1 (bet $10 to triumph $160 total)
Trainer: Mark Glatt
Jockey: Mike Smith

The consciousness bully communicative of the race. If you’re rooting for a equine based connected a quality involvement story, past this is your horse. Named by trainer Mark Glatt’s precocious wife, So Happy broke maiden astatine 38-1 and won the Santa Anita Derby astatine 7-1, beating Potente to springiness Glatt his archetypal Derby starter. I’d beryllium amazed if So Happy recovered the winners’ ellipse here, though. Runhappy progeny astir apt bash not privation to spell 1 1/4 miles, but if helium happens to win, determination won't beryllium galore adust eyes astatine the track.

9. The Puma: 10/1 (bet $10 to triumph $110 total)
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Jockey: Javier Castellano

I’m struggling here. The rumored acquisition of an involvement successful the equine by Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift means the terms present is going to beryllium earnestly slashed. And that isn’t the benignant of play I’m looking to marque connected Derby Day successful a 20-horse field. However, the equine does figure. Lost a bob to Commandment successful the Florida Derby, bushed Further Ado successful Tampa and was favored successful his debut against Chief Wallabee. Connections won the Derby with Mage. Running benignant profiles of that arsenic a winning-type. Being by Essential Quality, The Puma should beryllium capable to grip the other distance. Then you look astatine the flip broadside among a mates of those arguments for. The triumph implicit Further Ado astatine Tampa came with Further Ado making his archetypal commencement disconnected a three-month layoff, and helium apt needed the race. While favored implicit Chief Wallabee successful that maiden contention wherever some were making their debut. And Chief Wallabee inactive won the contention rather handily — and Bill Mott seldom has a equine cranked to triumph archetypal out. He was beaten handily by Renegade successful the Sam Davis. I’ll astir apt fto the committee determine however progressive I get here. Can helium win? Absolutely. Will determination beryllium just odds? Absolutely not. But if you’re keying connected apical successful exotics and get a mates of prices underneath, past you’re successful business. I’ll apt beryllium defensively using, but the Swiftie bandwagon decidedly has the handicapper successful maine connected the fence.

10. Wonder Dean: 30/1 (bet $10 to triumph $310 total)
Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
Jockey: Ryusei Sakai

UAE Derby victor is overmatched present and volition not beryllium connected my tickets. Until 1 beats me, I volition beryllium lasting against the Japan imports successful the Derby.

11. Incredibolt: 20/1 (bet $10 to triumph $210 total)
Trainer: Riley Mott
Jockey: Jaime Torres 

Has won some of his vocation races astatine Churchill Downs, including the Grade 3 Street Sense. Was 4-1 successful the Holy Bull astatine Gulfstream but did thing that day. Maybe helium didn't similar the track, possibly helium needed the race. Whatever the reason, helium bounced backmost with a large effort successful the Virginia Derby, drafting disconnected successful the stretch. Was it obstruction aided? Possibly. His pedigree doesn’t shriek distance, but helium finishes good and has the look of a long-shot you’ll privation connected your tickets.

12. Chief Wallabee: 8/1 (bet $10 to triumph $90 total)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado

I deliberation he’s the champion equine successful the race. Won astatine archetypal asking for Bill Mott — and Bill Mott seldom wins with a equine making its debut. He bushed The Puma successful that race, by the way. Just missed successful the Fountain of Youth, losing by a cervix to Commandment, past ran an aboriginal identical contention successful the Florida Derby, losing fundamentally a broad finish. I was a small acrophobic astir adding blinkers, but I’ll spot Bill Mott’s judgment, arsenic this volition apt support him focused and not dissuaded from moving successful choky quarters. He is perfectly "one of the ones" you privation prominently connected your ticket, arsenic Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado are looking to triumph their 3rd Triple Crown contention successful the past four.

14. Potente: 20/1 (bet $10 to triumph $210 total)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Juan Hernandez

First happening that caught my oculus was $2.4 cardinal for this one. Yeesh — steep. But it's not my money, thankfully! Beaten favourite successful the Santa Anita Derby is making a large measurement up from what he’s been facing successful California and being by Into Mischief, helium looks similar he’s stuck successful betwixt being a seven-furlong specializer and a 1 1/16 horse. Another 1 I can’t rather get behind.

15. Emerging Market: 15/1 (bet $10 to triumph $160 total)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat

He’s looking to springiness Chad Brown his archetypal Derby triumph successful conscionable his 3rd beingness start. He broke maiden connected Feb. 7, won the Louisiana Derby and has been pointing to this for six weeks. History is against him, but I deliberation he’s sitting connected a monolithic effort here. Not lone does helium person a jockey that ever manages to find a bully travel and placing successful the Derby/Triple Crown race, his progression signifier leads maine to judge this volition beryllium his champion contention yet. He ran immense successful his debut, beating a highly thought of equine named Powershift and then, contempt seeing his Beyer velocity fig autumn 7 points successful his archetypal contention against winners successful the Louisiana Derby, helium managed to get the win. I’d expect helium could onshore successful the 100 Beyer scope present if helium gets a travel and that puts him close successful it. He besides profiles to person the moving benignant of the victor — conscionable disconnected the pace, but not a implicit closer.

16. Pavlovian: 30/1 (bet $10 to triumph $310 total)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Edwin Maldonado

Front-running Cal-bred has zero shot. I cognize immoderate volition marque the lawsuit that helium astir stole the Louisiana Derby astatine 22-1, but he’s gotta transportation his velocity different 1/16 of a mile against a tract doubly that broadside and overmuch deeper.

17. Six Speed: 50/1 (bet $10 to triumph $510 total) 
Trainer: Bhupat Seamer
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Another front-runner who draws into the contention disconnected a second-place decorativeness successful the UAE Derby. I’ll beryllium rooting for co-owners Jake Ballis and Reagan Swinbank to bask the walkover and the day, but I can’t spot this 1 being astir erstwhile the existent moving begins.

18. Further Ado: 6/1 (bet $10 to triumph $70 total) 
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: John Velazquez

The question 1 needs to inquire themselves erstwhile it comes to Further Ado is whether you deliberation Further Ado is simply a Keeneland freak. His 2 champion races by acold person travel astatine Keeneland, but helium besides won the G2 Jockey Club implicit the Churchill surface. Was beaten by The Puma successful Tampa, but there’s each crushed to judge helium needed that race. Is helium a bounce campaigner disconnected the large fig astatine KEE? Possibly, but a period disconnected should beryllium capable clip to beryllium acceptable here. He’s versatile, and I judge I've landed connected him arsenic the astir apt victor from the Cox barn.

19. Golden Tempo: 30/1 (bet $10 to triumph $310 total)
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

It’s casual to basal for trainer Cherie DeVaux and racing royalty Phipps Stable, who owns Golden Temp. Homebred should beryllium capable to tally each time with Curlin/Bernardini bloodlines, but the deficiency of velocity worries me. Jockey Jose Ortiz is going to request everything to spell close trip-wise to triumph from mode disconnected the pace. Among the agelong shots successful the race, this 1 appears to beryllium the "livest of the live," and portion I deliberation an underneath decorativeness is the astir apt ceiling here, a triumph isn’t retired of the question. Check retired the Louisiana Derby, wherever helium didn’t person the champion start, the velocity didn’t backmost up and was lone beaten a length. Would beryllium an highly fashionable — and rewarding astatine the model - winner. Does person immoderate concerns, though with "cracked feet" arsenic they’ve been called.

21. Great White: 50/1 (bet $10 to triumph $510 total) 
Trainer: John Ennis
Jockey: Alex Achard

Upset victor of the Battaglia connected the synthetic was obscurity to beryllium recovered successful the Blue Grass vs. Further Ado, and he’ll beryllium obscurity to beryllium recovered present either.

22. Ocelli: 50/1 (bet $10 to triumph $510 total) 
Trainer: Joseph Ramos
Jockey: Whit Beckman

Lol.

How I'm Betting The Kentucky Derby

$4 Exacta Box ($48)
11-12-15-18

$2 Exacta Key Box ($48)
12-15-18 with 3-6-9-19

$10 Win-Place ($40)       
12, 18

$1 Trifecta ($48)
12-18/6-9-12-15-18/1-6-9-11-12-15-18-19

Notes, Stats and Trends

Rail Is Not The Place To Be

Since 2020, erstwhile the continuous 20-horse gross has been used, nary equine breaking from the obstruction has finished amended than fifth. However, nary was amended than the 4th prime connected the board. Most ran beauteous overmuch to their fertile connected the oddsboard.

Odds Rank/Finish

2025 — Citizen Bull 7th/15th
2024 — Dornoch 9th/10th
2023 — Hit Show 11th/5th
2022 — Mo Donegal 5th/5th
2021 — Known Agenda 4th/8th
2020 — Max Player 6th/5th

The past clip a top-three prime broke from the obstruction was 2010, erstwhile Lookin At Lucky went favored and finished sixth. The past clip a top-three prime broke from the obstruction and deed the committee was 1974, erstwhile Agitate finished third. The past clip a top-three prime broke from the obstruction and won was Needles successful 1956.

The past equine to deed the committee aft breaking from the obstruction was Lookin astatine Lee - 2nd astatine 33-1  successful 2017. That’s the lone ITM decorativeness by a equine that broke from the obstruction successful the past 37 years. The past equine to triumph aft breaking from the obstruction - Ferdinand astatine 18-1 successful 1986.

Pletcher's Derby Problems

Since Always Dreaming won the Derby successful 2017, lone 1 of Todd Pletcher’s 17 Derby starters deed the committee — Audible, 3rd successful 2018. Seven of those 17 starters were among the top-five betting choices successful the field. Pletcher has had 13 Derby starters sent disconnected arsenic a top-three betting choice. Two person won (Super Saver, Always Dreaming), 3 person finished 3rd (Impeachment, Revolutionary Danza) and 7 person finished 10th oregon worse. Pletcher did not person a starter successful the Derby past year.

Favorites Have Run Well, But Not Won Lately

Favorites person finished successful the wealth successful 18 of the past 19 Triple Crown Races (four wins, 9 seconds, 5 thirds). The 1 that didn’t — Fierceness, who finished 15th successful the 2024 Kentucky Derby. If you bounds it to the Kentucky Derby, favorites person finished successful the wealth successful 12 of the past 14 Kentucky Derbies (six wins, 4 seconds, 2 thirds), with Fierceness successful 2024 and Improbable successful 2019 the omissions.

The past 8 Triple Crown races person been formful from a trifecta standpoint. Of the 24 runners that occupied the trifecta spots, 18 were among the top-three betting choices connected the board. However, we’ve inactive seen large payouts, arsenic 5 of the past 9 Triple Crown races were won by a equine that was astatine slightest the 5th betting choice.

Since a tally of six consecutive winning Derby favorites from 2013-2018, nary of the authoritative Derby winners was amended than the 3rd choice. In that span, the longest changeable connected the committee (Rich Strike) and 18th betting prime (Country House) person won the race.

Official Kentucky Derby Winner (Since 2019)
Odds/Odds Rank

2025 — Sovereignty 8-1/3rd
2024 — Mystik Dan 19-1/7th
2023 — Mage 15-1/8th
2022 — Rich Strike 81-1/20th
2021 — Mandaloun 27-1/8th <
2020 — Authentic 8-1/3rd
2019 — Country House 65-1/18th

* < Was not paid retired arsenic victor successful mutuels

In Prat We Trust

Flavien Prat has had 16 mounts successful Triple Crown races. Only erstwhile has helium finished worse than fourth, and that was with his 2nd Triple Crown equine Solomini. His 16 mounts person resulted successful 2 wins, 2 seconds, 7 thirds and 4 fourth-place finishes. If you bounds it to the Derby, it's a win, 1 second, 4 thirds and a 4th from 8 mounts. Anyone attraction to instrumentality Emerging Market, who is 15-1 connected the moneyline, successful the superfecta?

Odds and Ends

The 2nd prime successful the wagering hasn’t won since Super Saver successful 2010. The 4th prime successful the wagering hasn’t won since Grindstone successful 1996

Irad Ortiz Jr. has ne'er deed the committee from his 9 Derby mounts. His champion decorativeness is 4th aboard the 2019 favourite Improbable.

Since winning his 3rd Derby aboard Authentic successful 2020, John Velazquez's past 4 mounts person finished 15th, 13th, 15th and 19th. Each of them were among the top-seven betting choices.

Mike Smith volition beryllium making his 69th vocation Triple Crown equine aboard So Happy. Smith past deed the committee successful a Triple Crown contention erstwhile Justify crossed the ligament archetypal successful the 2018 Belmont Stakes to triumph the Triple Crown.