We need to face the truth about Putin if we want lasting peace in Ukraine

Sunday’s gathering betwixt Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy produced nary melodramatic announcements, sweeping declarations oregon signed bid deal. That result should astonishment nary one. After astir 4 years of war, diplomacy was ne'er going to crook connected a azygous property league oregon photograph opportunity.

President Trump himself struck a measured code afterward, saying, "I deliberation we’ll get it done," portion acknowledging that the effort "can spell poorly." Zelenskyy, for his part, described the talks arsenic constructive and serious, emphasizing that Ukraine remains committed to a conscionable bid that ensures semipermanent security. Both statements constituent to the aforesaid reality: the process is underway, but the hard decisions prevarication ahead.

Still, the gathering mattered.

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According to reporting by Reuters and The Wall Street Journal, the intent of the Trump–Zelenskyy talks was not to finalize peace, but to adjacent gaps connected a processing model — often described arsenic a 20-point program — earlier Trump engages straight with Russian President Vladimir Putin. That model emphasizes Ukrainian sovereignty, enforcement mechanisms and information guarantees, portion leaving the astir delicate issues — territory and the Zaporizhzhia atomic powerfulness works — unresolved.

President Donald Trump greets Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky astatine his Mar-a-Lago nine connected Dec. 28, 2025, successful Palm Beach, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

In different words, diplomacy has entered a much superior phase. Not due to the fact that bid is imminent, but due to the fact that exhaustion is universal. Ukraine continues to endure devastating losses. Russia bleeds manpower and treasure. Europe is strained nether economical and information pressures. The United States faces increasing planetary instability from Eastern Europe to the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific. Fatigue does not warrant bid — but it creates governmental abstraction for it.

Cautious optimism is truthful justified. But optimism without realism would beryllium dangerous.

The cardinal question hanging implicit Sunday’s gathering is not whether a model exists — it does — but whether it is built connected a mendacious presumption that inactive dominates overmuch Western thinking: that Vladimir Putin is simply a rational histrion who tin beryllium satisfied with partial concessions. The grounds suggests otherwise.

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Since the penetration began, Putin has responded to compromise with escalation, to restraint with expansion, and to negotiations with continued violence. Even arsenic bid efforts accelerated this week, Russia continued launching rocket and drone strikes crossed Ukraine — a information confirmed by media outlets. Those attacks are not random. They are signals. Either Putin intends to proceed the warfare outright, oregon helium is deliberately shaping the diplomatic situation by unit — creating urgency, fearfulness and unit for Ukrainian concessions.

In either case, the accusation is clear: Putin volition not halt unless helium is forced to halt — oregon unless helium is fixed everything helium is demanding.

That world should sober immoderate treatment of "land for peace." Territorial concessions predominate headlines due to the fact that maps are tangible and emotionally charged. But onshore is not the decisive variable. Security is.

Multiple outlets person reported that Ukraine is seeking what officials picture arsenic "Article 5–like" information guarantees — binding commitments from the United States and its allies to respond to aboriginal Russian aggression. Zelenskyy has adjacent indicated openness to halting Ukraine’s NATO rank bid if specified guarantees are credible. That unsocial underscores however existential this question is for Kyiv.

Ukraine has learned the hard mode that vague assurances are worthless. The 1994 Budapest Memorandum did not halt Russia. Previous ceasefires did not halt Russia. Agreements without enforcement did not halt Russia. Any bid that trades Ukrainian territory for promises without teeth is not bid — it is simply a intermission earlier the adjacent assault.

Since the penetration began, Putin has responded to compromise with escalation, to restraint with expansion, and to negotiations with continued violence. 

Security guarantees indispensable truthful beryllium specific, automatic and enforceable. Clear triggers. Defined responses. Real consequences. Not committees that deliberate portion missiles fall. Not sanctions that necessitate months of governmental wrangling to reassemble. Reuters has reported that the draught model nether treatment includes monitoring mechanisms and penalties for violations — an encouraging sign, if they are implemented seriously.

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This is wherever President Trump’s relation becomes decisive.

Trump possesses leverage that fewer leaders do, precisely due to the fact that helium is consenting to harvester unit with negotiation. He tin tighten sanctions enforcement and adjacent evasion pathways that blunt existing measures. He tin enforce snap-back penalties that activate instantly upon violation. He tin support subject assistance capable to rise the outgo of renewed Russian offensives. And helium tin connection a conditional off-ramp — economical alleviation oregon diplomatic reengagement — lone aft verified compliance.

The nonsubjective is not to transportation Putin of Western goodwill. It is to alteration his outgo calculus.

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A residential gathering is seen heavy damaged aft a Russian onslaught connected Kyiv, Ukraine, connected Nov. 25, 2025. (Evgeniy Maloletka/AP)

Putin has repeatedly shown that helium volition sorb symptom — economic, military, diplomatic — if helium believes clip and fearfulness are connected his side. What helium has not shown is simply a willingness to retreat successful the look of strength. Any bid model that fails to relationship for that signifier risks collapsing the infinitesimal attraction shifts elsewhere.

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Europe should beryllium watching closely. This warfare is not solely astir Ukraine. It is simply a trial of whether borders successful Europe tin erstwhile again beryllium changed by force. A colony that assumes Putin tin beryllium "managed" done compromise unsocial volition not stabilize the continent; it volition invitation the adjacent crisis. History is unkind to illusions of restraint erstwhile dealing with expansionist regimes.

The astir realistic takeaway from Sunday’s gathering is this: diplomacy has not failed — but neither has it yet proven itself. Alignment betwixt Washington and Kyiv is simply a indispensable archetypal step, not a capable one. If President Trump proceeds to talk with Putin equipped with a unified framework, wide reddish lines and credible enforcement tools, past this effort has a chance.

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If not — if bid is pursued without strength, enforcement and clarity — past Sunday’s gathering volition beryllium remembered not arsenic the opening of the end, but arsenic different infinitesimal erstwhile the West mistook words for power.

Peace remains possible. But lone if we wantonness the comforting fabrication that Vladimir Putin tin beryllium satisfied with half-measures — and physique an statement that makes renewed aggression unmistakably costly.

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