Operational recovery forecast to drive strong growth in DRC copper output in 2026

The Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) copper accumulation is expected to turn moderately successful 2025, supported by ratio gains astatine cardinal operations specified arsenic the Mutanda, Tenke Fungurume Mining (TFM) and Kinsevere, though this maturation volition beryllium partially offset by accumulation disruptions astatine the Kamoa-Kakula analyzable pursuing impermanent flooding.

In 2026, output is forecast to summation powerfully with an yearly maturation complaint of 6% to scope 3,404.1kt, arsenic operations normalise astatine Kamoa-Kakula, restoring volumes mislaid successful 2025 and enabling the Phase 3 enlargement to present its planned capableness increases, portion the Mutanda, TFM and Kinsevere mines are expected to support dependable performance, collectively driving a important uplift successful nationalist production.

Additional upside successful 2026 volition travel from the Mutoshi project, which commenced operations successful September 2025, alongside unchangeable output from the Kipushi mine, which entered commercialized accumulation successful 2024. Medium-term maturation volition beryllium further underpinned by continued process optimisation, favourable ore grades crossed respective mid-tier plus and ongoing investments successful expansions and mine-life extensions, including plans to summation Kamoa-Kakula’s capableness to 600ktpa and throughput and prime enhancements astatine TFM.

Chinese mining and smelting companies are expected to stay cardinal to this maturation trajectory done sustained investment, accelerated enlargement timelines and deeper integration crossed the copper worth chain, supported by authorities policies aimed astatine strengthening home information and boosting copper output and exports.

However, the DRC’s copper output is expected to gradually participate a diminution signifier from 2029, arsenic respective ample deposits are approaching depletion and high-grade zones successful cardinal mines are becoming exhausted. While ongoing ramp-ups and near-term expansions volition enactment short-term production, output is projected to inclination downwards arsenic operations modulation from highest to declining ore grades.

Overall, during the play from 2025 to 2035, copper output is forecast to summation astatine a humble compound yearly maturation rate, reaching astir 3,511kt by 2035, reflecting beardown medium-term betterment followed by structural proviso constraints successful the aboriginal years of the forecast.

"Operational betterment forecast to thrust beardown maturation successful DRC copper output successful 2026" was primitively created and published by Mining Technology, a GlobalData owned brand.

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