Iran's collapse or survival hinges on one choice inside the Revolutionary Guard

Iran is not simply experiencing different question of thoroughfare protests. It is facing a situation that strikes astatine the halfway of the Islamic Republic—and, for the archetypal clip successful years, places the regime’s endurance successful existent doubt.

Across Iran, demonstrations sparked by economical illness and corruption person rapidly transformed into nonstop challenges to clerical rule. Security forces person responded with unrecorded fire, wide arrests, and communications blackouts. International reporting cites hundreds of radical killed and thousands detained. Internet shutdowns constituent to a authorities determined to suppress not lone dissent, but impervious of it.

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Iran has behaved this mode before. What has changed is the strategical environment—and the increasing consciousness among Iranians that the strategy itself is failing.

Still, 1 indispensable beryllium clear-eyed: Iran’s leaders volition not spell quietly. They bash not spot themselves arsenic mean autocrats clinging to power. In their ain theology, they spot themselves arsenic executing Allah’s will.

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A Regime That Sees Repression arsenic Divine Duty

Since 1979, the Islamic Republic has framed its authorization done velayat-e faqih—the regularisation of the Islamic jurist. Under this doctrine, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is not simply a governmental figure. He is the guardian of an Islamic gyration believed to beryllium divinely sanctioned.

In this undated photo, Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is pictured  seated adjacent to elder subject authoritative successful Iran. (Getty Images)

That theological worldview straight shapes however the authorities responds to dissent. When Iranian information forces occurrence into crowds, the authorities does not spot itself arsenic suppressing governmental opposition; it sees itself arsenic crushing heresy, sedition, and rebellion against God’s order. Protesters are routinely labeled "corrupt connected earth," a Quranic operation historically utilized to warrant terrible punishment.

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Public condemnation and motivation appeals unsocial volition not determination Tehran. Its rulers judge endurance, sacrifice, and unit are virtues—especially erstwhile utilized to sphere the revolution.

Even regimes driven by spiritual certainty tin illness erstwhile their powerfulness structures fracture.

Why this infinitesimal differs from 2009—or 2022

Iran has seen wide protests before. In 2009, the Green Movement threatened the authorities aft a disputed election. In 2022, nationwide protests erupted pursuing the decease of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old Iranian pistillate who died successful morality-police custody aft being detained for allegedly violating Iran’s hijab rules. Each time, the authorities survived.

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Several factors suggest this infinitesimal is different.

First, the system is acold worse. Iran faces sustained currency devaluation, unemployment, and ostentation that has crushed the mediate people and hollowed retired authorities legitimacy. That unit is compounded by a deepening h2o situation that has crippled agriculture, strained municipality life, and fueled unrest successful aggregate provinces. Economic despair is nary longer peripheral; it present sits astatine the center.

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Beyond economics, Iran’s outer deterrence has eroded. The warfare with Israel successful 2025 inflicted existent damage. Senior Iranian commanders were killed. Air defenses were penetrated. Missile and drone infrastructure was disrupted. Iran’s aura of invulnerability—carefully cultivated implicit decades—was severely shaken.

At the aforesaid time, Iran’s proxy web is nether strain. Hamas has been devastated. Hezbollah has suffered important losses and present faces home unit successful Lebanon. The Houthis stay disruptive but isolated. Tehran’s alleged "axis of resistance" looks little similar an unstoppable unit and much similar a bid of costly liabilities.

Most importantly, the regime’s coercive apparatus is nether stress. And this is wherever the aboriginal of Iran volition beryllium decided.

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Watch the IRGC and the Basij—the result whitethorn hinge connected their choices

No institutions substance much close present than the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its paramilitary arm, the Basij.

Often described arsenic the regime’s "eyes and ears," the Basij are not a accepted subject unit but a nationwide population-control and interior surveillance network. Embedded successful neighborhoods, universities, factories, and mosques, they show dissent, place protestation organizers, and determination rapidly to intimidate oregon detain them—often earlier demonstrations tin spread. 

During past unrest, including the 2009 Green Movement and the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests, Basij units played a cardinal relation successful suppressing absorption done beatings, arrests, and adjacent coordination with IRGC information forces. Their worth to the authorities lies not successful battlefield strength, but successful omnipresence and ideological loyalty.

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Their ngo is to power dissent astatine the section level—before it becomes national. As agelong arsenic the Basij stay loyal and effectual successful towns, neighborhoods, and campuses, the authorities tin incorporate unrest. If they hesitate, defect, oregon basal aside, Tehran’s grip weakens rapidly.

The Basij are the existent instrumentality of colonisation control. If the authorities is forced to deploy the IRGC wide for interior order, it signals that section power has failed—and that the strategy is nether acold greater strain.

The Trump medication should beryllium cautious not to manus Tehran the propaganda triumph it wants. Loud declarations astir authorities alteration from Washington hazard delegitimizing Iranian voices. Support the people. Isolate the killers. Let the authorities ain its crimes.

The IRGC, by contrast, controls the subject and functions arsenic an economical empire. Beyond interior security, the IRGC besides shapes Iran’s overseas policy—overseeing rocket forces, determination proxies, and outer operations. It exists to support the gyration abroad, portion the Basij exists to power nine astatine home.

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Over the past 3 decades, the IRGC has embedded itself successful Iran’s astir important industries—energy, construction, telecommunications, transportation, ports, and black-market finance. Entire sectors of the Iranian system present beryllium connected IRGC-controlled firms and foundations.

This creates a decisive tension. On 1 hand, the IRGC has each crushed to support the authorities that enriched it. On the other, prolonged instability, sanctions, and economical illness endanger the precise assets the Guards control. At immoderate point, self-preservation whitethorn statesman to vie with ideological loyalty.

That is wherefore Iran’s aboriginal whitethorn beryllium little connected what protesters bash successful the streets—and much connected whom the IRGC yet chooses to back.

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Three outcomes look plausible.

The archetypal is repression. The Basij could support section power portion the IRGC backs the Supreme Leader, allowing the authorities to crush dissent, and enforce bid done overwhelming force. This would sphere the Islamic Republic, but astatine the outgo of deeper isolation and semipermanent decay.

The 2nd is continuity without clerical dominance. A "soft coup" could sideline aging clerics successful favour of a military-nationalist enactment that preserves halfway powerfulness structures portion shedding the regime’s astir unpopular spiritual figures. The strategy would stay authoritarian—but altered.

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The 3rd is fracture. If parts of the Basij splinter oregon basal aside—and the IRGC hesitates to intervene broadly—the regime’s interior power could unravel quickly. This is the slightest apt outcome, but the astir transformative—and the 1 astir favorable to semipermanent determination stability.

Revolutions thin to win not due to the fact that crowds turn larger, but due to the fact that information forces yet halt obeying orders.

America’s strategical objective: clarity without ownership

The United States indispensable beryllium disciplined astir its goal.

America should not question to "run Iran," redraw its culture, oregon enforce a leader. That attack has failed elsewhere. But neither should Washington unreal neutrality betwixt an abusive theocracy and a colonisation demanding dignity.

Our strategy is clear:

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Prevent Iran from acquiring atomic weapons.

End Iran’s export of coercion and proxy war.

Push Iran toward determination stableness alternatively than disruption.

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Encourage a authorities that derives legitimacy from its people, not coercion.

Achieving that result requires unit without provocation.

What the Trump medication and allies should bash now

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First, exposure repression relentlessly. Iran’s net blackouts are a weapon. The U.S. and allies should enactment each lawful means of keeping Iranians connected and atrocities visible.

Second, people the regime’s enforcers—not the public. Sanctions should absorption connected circumstantial IRGC units, Basij commanders, judges, and information officials liable for killings and wide arrests. Collective punishment lone strengthens authorities propaganda.

Third, awesome consequences—and off-ramps. Those ordering unit indispensable cognize they volition beryllium held accountable. Those who garbage unlawful orders should cognize the satellite is watching—and remembering.

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Fourth, deter outer escalation. Tehran whitethorn effort to unify the federation done confrontation abroad. Strong determination rocket defense, maritime security, and allied coordination trim the regime’s quality to alteration the taxable with war.

Finally, bash not manus Tehran the propaganda triumph it wants. Loud declarations astir authorities alteration from Washington hazard delegitimizing Iranian voices. Support the people. Isolate the killers. Let the authorities ain its crimes.

The bottommost line

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Iran’s rulers judge they are carrying retired divine will. That makes them dangerous—and stubborn. But it does not marque them immortal.

Every revolutionary authorities yet faces a infinitesimal erstwhile fearfulness stops working, wealth runs out, and loyalty fractures. Iran whitethorn beryllium approaching that infinitesimal now.

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The result volition not beryllium decided by speeches successful Washington, but by choices successful Tehran—especially wrong the IRGC.

If the Guards reason their aboriginal lies with the radical alternatively than the clerics, Iran could yet crook a page. If they bash not, repression volition prevail—for a time.

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America’s task is not to unit history, but to signifier the conditions nether which it unfolds—with care, strategy, and motivation clarity.

Because erstwhile the Islamic Republic yet faces its reckoning, the satellite indispensable beryllium ready—not to inhabit Iran, but to guarantee that what replaces the tyranny is not simply the aforesaid authorities successful a antithetic uniform.

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