'I don't see a bubble': Why Wall Street thinks the stock market can keep climbing even as AI anxiety grows

As stocks beryllium adjacent all-time highs, strategists are brushing disconnected concerns of an AI bubble.

At slightest for now.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is connected gait to adjacent retired the twelvemonth with a summation of implicit 17%, powered by a 26% leap successful exertion stocks (XLK).

“I don't spot a bubble astatine all. However, I bash judge we're going to beryllium going into a bubble,” Sanctuary Wealth main concern strategist Mary Ann Bartels told Yahoo Finance past week.

Batels compared the existent marketplace to anterior bubbles, including the precocious 1920s and the dot-com bubble.

“We're tracking beauteous similarly. In fact, it's benignant of eerie however we're really tracking that pattern,” she said. “I spot a bubble occurring but not retired until possibly ’29 into ’30.”

But for the clip being, Sanctuary strategists forecast that tech volition proceed starring the marketplace higher retired into the extremity of the decade. They spot the S&P 500 anyplace betwixt 10,000 and 13,000 by 2030.

“That's wherefore we're calling 2026, you know, to beryllium fearless, that there's inactive important upside successful this market, peculiarly for technology,” she said.

Part of the upside comes from semiconductor stocks. Once treated arsenic commodity plays, they go maturation stocks, with Nvidia (NVDA) “basically rewriting the way for semiconductor chips.”

The AI spot powerhouse has surged implicit 40% truthful acold this year, pushing its marketplace headdress to $4.6 trillion and making it the astir invaluable publically traded company. On Friday, Nvidia shares roseate aft the institution announced a $20 cardinal licensing woody with specialized chipmaker Groq (GROQ.PVT).

The woody was announced arsenic the spot abstraction has heated up, with Alphabet's Google (GOOG) making headlines with its specialized lawsuit chips called TPUs.

Alphabet banal has soared immoderate 65% twelvemonth to date.

UBS strategists besides expect the AI roar and robust nett maturation to underpin marketplace gains successful 2026.

“We enactment that guardant price-to-earnings multiples are lone marginally higher than astatine the commencement of the year, reinforcing the information that net maturation and not valuation bubbles person driven marketplace gains,” wrote the strategists past week.

UBS forecasts S&P 500 net per stock to turn astir 10% twelvemonth implicit year, pushing the scale to 7,700 by the extremity of adjacent year.

Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni besides sees the scale reaching 7,700 adjacent year, with the probability of his "Roaring 2020s" script astatine 60%. He cited, among different reasons, taxation benefits from the "One Big Beautiful Bill" that passed this twelvemonth and the AI boom.

In October, Goldman Sachs analysts argued the banal marketplace isn’t successful a bubble due to the fact that tech stocks person risen mostly owed to existent growth, not speculative bets. The steadfast noted that top-performing companies person beardown equilibrium sheets and the AI assemblage is inactive mostly led by a fewer large players, portion astir bubbles hap erstwhile galore caller entrants unreserved into a blistery sector.